District 196 projects stable enrollment for 2026–27 with slight net gain
Summary
District administration projected a 10/1/2026 seat count of 28,993 — a net gain of about 59 students (0.2%) — and said the projections will inform the 2026–27 preliminary staffing and operating budget; the projection includes breakdowns by elementary (39.2%), secondary (53.7%) and center-based/ECSE (7%).
District 196 presented its enrollment projections for the 2026–27 school year at the Nov. 10 board meeting.
Danny Duchine, representing the enrollment projections committee, said the model aims to predict the district's Oct. 1, 2026 seat count rather than an end-of-year ADM total. The committee recommended a projection of 28,993 students, an increase of about 59 students (≈0.2%) over the most recent official count. Duchine said the projection reflects an expected increase at the middle- and high-school levels and continuing center-based special education enrollment trends.
Key assumptions the committee reviews include historical trends, local birth rates and kindergarten enrollment, boundary changes, and cohort progression (migration from grade to grade). The committee reported that its methodology has performed with high accuracy over the past five years (accuracy range cited between 98.95% and 100.85%).
Duchine said the 28,993 projection breaks down to roughly 39.2% elementary, 53.7% secondary and about 7% center-based/early childhood special education programs; comparing to recent actuals, the projection represents a small net gain district-wide.
Staff emphasized that these projections will feed into the staffing and building operating budget calculations for the 2026–27 preliminary budget and that they will continue to monitor monthly enrollment and winter registration data before finalizing assumptions.
The presentation was informational; board members complimented the projection team's accuracy and asked only minor clarifying questions (for example, a suggestion to round ranges). No action was requested.
