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AI Stocks Surge as Active Management Struggles

July 12, 2024 | Public Employees Retirement System, Executive, Oklahoma



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This article was created by AI summarizing key points discussed. AI makes mistakes, so for full details and context, please refer to the video of the full meeting. Please report any errors so we can fix them. Report an error »

AI Stocks Surge as Active Management Struggles
In a recent government meeting, discussions centered on the performance of investment portfolios, highlighting significant trends in the market. The total fund's absolute performance over the past year was deemed satisfactory, although it lagged behind its policy benchmark. A notable factor contributing to this underperformance was the heavy reliance on the S&P 500 for benchmarking, particularly as active management strategies faced challenges.

The meeting revealed that U.S. large-cap stocks have dominated the market, with the S&P 500 showing a year-to-date increase of 15.3%, significantly outperforming other asset classes. Emerging markets followed with a 7.5% gain, while small-cap stocks only managed a 1.7% increase. Over the past year, large-cap stocks surged nearly 30%, compared to a mere 9% for small caps.

A striking point discussed was the extraordinary market capitalization growth of six major companies—Broadcom, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and NVIDIA—whose combined market cap gains this year surpassed the total market cap of several long-established firms, including Johnson & Johnson and Exxon. This growth was also noted to exceed the GDP of countries like Japan and Saudi Arabia.

The meeting further addressed the concentration of stocks within indices, particularly after the annual reconstitution of the Russell indices. The top 10 stocks in the growth index now represent 62% of its value, indicating a trend towards increased concentration. This poses challenges for active managers who are not heavily invested in these high-performing stocks.

Additionally, the MSCI ACWI index, which encompasses a global benchmark of 9,000 stocks, saw five stocks—four from the \"Magnificent Seven\" and Taiwan Semiconductor—account for over 100% of the index's return in the second quarter, underscoring the narrowness of market performance.

Despite trailing benchmarks, the overall portfolio return was reported at 8.5% net of fees, exceeding the required return by 100 basis points. The discussion concluded with a focus on the importance of maintaining investment discipline, particularly in light of upcoming cash inflows from redemptions, which will be strategically deployed to rebalance the portfolio towards fixed income.

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Scribe from Workplace AI
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