Concerns about the long-term viability of transit systems in the United States have intensified, particularly in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. A recent government meeting highlighted significant trends in transit productivity, revealing that while inflation-adjusted operating costs have more than quintupled since 1960, ridership has remained stagnant. Between 2013 and 2019, ridership decreased by an average of 1% annually, while transit work hours increased by 2.5% per year, indicating a troubling decline in labor productivity.

The pandemic exacerbated these issues, as transit systems, primarily designed for peak-hour commuting, faced a dramatic shift in travel behavior. Commuting, which accounted for about one-fifth of all travel modes, represented between one-third to one-half of transit travel prior to the pandemic. However, from 2017 to 2022, the share of work-related travel by transit plummeted from 41.5% to 28.6%, largely due to the rise in remote work.

Despite a 27.8% drop in transit ridership from 2019 to 2023, federal subsidies allowed transit agencies to maintain service levels close to pre-pandemic standards, with service provision declining by only 9.5%. This financial support has been crucial, especially as transit ridership remains concentrated in a few urban areas, with New York City alone accounting for 45.7% of nationwide transit trips.

The meeting underscored the disproportionate impact of inefficient transit services on low-income Americans who rely on public transportation. To address these challenges, recommendations were made for transit agencies to explore competitive service contracting and the potential for automation to achieve significant cost savings in the long term. As transit systems navigate these complex dynamics, the need for innovative solutions to enhance productivity and service delivery remains critical.