US labor market falters raising recession fears

The U.S. labor market showed signs of significant slowdown last month, with only 114,000 new jobs created, a stark decline from the average of 215,000 jobs per month over the past year. This has raised concerns as the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, the highest level since late 2021. The disappointing jobs report has sparked renewed debate about whether the Federal Reserve has delayed too long in cutting interest rates.

Economist Mohammed El Arian, president of Queen's College Cambridge University and chief economic adviser at Allianz, emphasized that the economy is weakening at a faster pace than anticipated, including by the Federal Reserve itself. He attributed this slowdown to the Fed's strategy of maintaining high interest rates to combat inflation, which may have gone too far, risking a recession rather than achieving a soft landing.

El Arian estimates a 35% probability of a recession, cautioning that such an economic downturn would disproportionately affect low-income households already struggling with depleted pandemic savings and maxed-out credit. He criticized the Fed for being slow to recognize both the inflationary pressures and the current economic weakness, suggesting that they risk making two significant policy mistakes in one cycle.

Looking ahead to the Fed's upcoming September meeting, market expectations have shifted dramatically, with a 70% probability now pricing in a half-point interest rate cut, despite the Fed typically opting for a quarter-point reduction. El Arian noted that while a cut could eventually stimulate hiring, the effects of monetary policy changes are often delayed, and the current rise in long-term unemployment poses a serious concern for the economy.

The implications of these discussions highlight the delicate balance the Federal Reserve must navigate as it considers its next steps in response to a faltering labor market and rising unemployment.