At the recent California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) workshop on tail risk and consequence modeling, a significant debate emerged regarding the relationship between wind and wildfire severity. Brian, a participant, challenged the prevailing narrative that wind is a primary driver of destructive fires, citing Cal Fire data that reveals a surprising trend: ten of the twenty most destructive fires in California occurred on non-windy days. He emphasized that 17 out of the 20 largest fires also took place without wind, underscoring the need for a nuanced understanding of fire dynamics.

This assertion sparked further discussion among attendees, with another participant acknowledging the shift towards vegetation-driven fires, particularly in areas affected by climate change, like the Dixie Fire. They noted that while wind-driven fires often correlate with higher fatalities and structural losses, the deadliest fires frequently occur at the urban interface, complicating the narrative around wind's role.

The workshop also delved into the implications of failing to adequately model tail risk in enterprise planning. Participants raised concerns about the potential consequences of overlooking these risks, particularly as climate change continues to influence fire behavior. The conversation highlighted the importance of understanding various drivers of tail risk events, including both wind and vegetation factors.

As the workshop progressed, discussions shifted towards the concept of egress and its relevance in tail risk calculations, indicating a growing recognition of the complexities involved in wildfire management and planning. The CPUC's ongoing efforts to refine its understanding of these risks are crucial as California grapples with the increasing threat of wildfires exacerbated by climate change.