Minnesota Demographer Susan Brower Reveals Decline in School Age Population and Rising Diversity

Minnesota's education landscape is shifting, with significant demographic changes impacting the state's school-age population. During a recent meeting of the Committee on Education Finance, State Demographer Susan Brower presented crucial data revealing that for the first time, Minnesota's older adult population has surpassed the number of school-age children, a trend expected to continue.

Brower reported that there were just under one million school-age children in Minnesota as of 2023, but projections indicate a potential 5% decline in this population over the next 15 to 20 years, primarily due to falling birth rates. The demographic shift is particularly pronounced in northern regions, where the number of school-age children is expected to decrease significantly.

The presentation highlighted the geographic distribution of children, noting that 56% reside in the Twin Cities metro area, with smaller clusters in cities like Duluth and Rochester. Brower emphasized that while some areas are experiencing growth, particularly along the I-94 corridor, others are facing declines, especially in rural regions.

A key takeaway from Brower's analysis is the increasing racial and ethnic diversity among Minnesota's school-age children. Currently, about 35% of this population identifies as children of color, with notable growth in multiracial and Latino groups. This trend is expected to continue, reflecting broader changes in the state's demographics.

Brower also addressed child poverty rates, which, while lower than the national average, have seen fluctuations due to economic conditions. Currently, just under 10% of Minnesota's school-age children live in poverty, with higher concentrations in urban areas.

The discussions raised important questions about the future of Minnesota's education system, particularly regarding how these demographic trends will influence funding and resource allocation. As the state grapples with these changes, the committee's focus on education finance will be crucial in addressing the needs of a diversifying student population.