[{"_1":2,"_99":-5,"_100":-5},"loaderData",{"_3":4,"_26":27},"root",{"_5":6,"_17":10,"_18":19,"_20":21,"_22":10,"_23":-5,"_24":-5,"_25":10},"user",{"_7":8,"_9":10,"_11":10,"_12":-5,"_13":-5,"_14":15,"_16":-5},"roles",[],"isAuthenticated",false,"isPremium","planName","subscriptionStatus","featureFlags",{},"insightsBudget","isDevelopmentHost","userPreferences",{},"recaptchaSiteKey","6LcvOJcUAAAAAHsB-gPGfGktcRlKpH7OTIU_dMTD","isImpersonating","impersonation","affiliateStatus","isFreedomPortal","routes/v2/article/layout",{"_28":29,"_30":31},"notFound",true,"relatedArticles",[32,75,87],{"_33":34,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":40,"_41":42,"_43":44,"_45":46,"_47":48,"_49":50,"_51":52,"_53":54,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":60,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":66,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":56,"_74":56},"mediaId",6377909,"mediaKeyId","2138558-5df5d73941429faaf90bba1cc2917bad","parentId",2138558,"title","Childcare payroll tax collections lag initial forecast; staff says catch-up and compliance still possible","audioSeconds",278,"startMs",1659230,"endMs",1938205,"viewUrl","/Search/View?dp=1&key=2138558-5df5d73941429faaf90bba1cc2917bad&start=1659&end=1938","thumbnailUrl","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/2138558-5df5d73941429faaf90bba1cc2917bad/thumbnail_1659230.jpg","articleUrl","/articles/6377909/Vermont/Childcare-payroll-tax-collections-lag-initial-forecast-staff-says-catch-up-and-compliance-still-possible","mediaUrl","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6377909-9bfa4bb077727467675fb2f3205022b5/orig.mp4?Expires=1775217254&Signature=n4ZttqLYecPB5CtNbIs~mbKlZr4LLbpYIIS-heK~atHKJkk657Z5xgdDwhjoLhrc1QYxjQU-EuEBcQSe9kCzhBwkDDN9Pxynpzxwe-AGBgQVdFtrnFwMz4SN09Jrnq9su7zPvx2SVGACYMs1Gv6gLpUbOgnGh03Wt9YlkpyD003vjfKpMVTnbu1rXrp3ftPttdV-fU0kqlGY~XXFluvt4ucSG9Z0Icokw-Xi9IhweaJkwq2~zUnG3fuXpDW8maUge8YqVtdh1dC0P4-gVuDoo-YtpZmr9jUZF9jNJBfYjzQcOtGTd7tawUGcco5LM026Qto70IpeJEoSH-YDa48AKA__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","author","","date","2025-01-22T16:12:54Z","article","Tom Kivett, staff member, told the Ways & Means Committee that early childcare payroll tax collections are below the forecast and that timing and compliance issues likely explain much of the shortfall.

A member noted a roughly $5 million shortfall relative to staff projections for the childcare payroll tax. Kivett said the incomplete series and filing timing are major factors: \"Q1, there should have been a liability due at the end of October and then we get money that has actually come in where people check the boxes for the childcare tax and it's, you know, 18,000,000 instead of 23,000,000.\" He emphasized there is only one completed quarter so far and that January–March filings and corporate returns could bring payments that will retroactively cover earlier liabilities.

Kivett said tax administration has been working on outreach and compliance, but the department was surprised at the early shortfall. He told the committee the timing of employer payroll cycles, year‑end reconciliations and corporate return deadlines (many in March) mean collections may look low in early quarters and later pick up. Staff and members said it is possible some of the theoretical childcare tax revenue will carry into the next fiscal year before reconciliation is complete.

Why this matters: the childcare payroll tax was modeled into current forecasts; an unexplained shortfall or a political decision about how to allocate any late payments could affect how surplus funds are treated in the general fund and policy choices later this year.","mediaType","Video","parentTitle","HWM with Tom Kavet","oneSentenceSummary","Tom Kivett said early childcare payroll tax receipts are below the forecast and that filing timing and compliance likely explain part of the gap.","taxTitle","Ways & Means, HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, Committees, Legislative , Vermont","taxId",35157,"location","Vermont","headline","shortSummary",{"_33":76,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":77,"_41":78,"_43":79,"_45":80,"_47":81,"_49":82,"_51":83,"_53":84,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":85,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":86,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":56,"_74":56},6377913,"Committee told property-transfer receipts exceed early expectations; staff to map where gains came from",757,962404,1719645,"/Search/View?dp=1&key=2138558-5df5d73941429faaf90bba1cc2917bad&start=962&end=1719","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/2138558-5df5d73941429faaf90bba1cc2917bad/thumbnail_962404.jpg","/articles/6377913/Vermont/Committee-told-property-transfer-receipts-exceed-early-expectations-staff-to-map-where-gains-came-from","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6377913-e2c4d0c0b9e523ec687e3237a6f0d792/orig.mp4?Expires=1775217254&Signature=QztqA3oOkape-qpaFWhE69306BfFbtUbFP3iyMbVHUE1tCMp-rJzhfi3efO6M7poJ5zog1ie7jlkCIMynPi-~Xdb3aod6rAqiYSfc7CN~Dd0GT7GDrjTbzErJpoF61g9Q6jpTlEY~ymnR4LSyPBsNwzMW69czYmt1TQdmlNO6l5GL9IKy0orAR8qaWOcyxBuYvSC27WlTsfgrVIvAe6IrJojcjJVmm3tIpUS-ejdv7KShFQo7IO~~PwDIgnpeOjumBsvzJ0V7tzFeBMoAZDK-dNqis0AtFLALE3TATxy6wC3eDsqDh495XKAYbEyqgsNEOix6talHYRyYIt3PU-O1A__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","Tom Kivett, staff member, told the Ways & Means Committee that early accounting shows property transfer tax receipts higher than projected and that staff are still digging into the cause.

When a member noted a \"42% increase from FY24,\" Kivett answered that some of the increase appears to be new revenue from the tax but cautioned the series is short and the data are still being validated. \"Well, it's too early to know but I think there otherwise would have been a decline... So that entire increase is new money from the tax. But maybe we're wrong,\" Kivett said.

Kivett explained the apparent jump could be driven by changes in transaction values rather than transaction counts. \"So most of it would be the change in value, not the volume change,\" he said, and added that staff have very granular transaction data and \"that's definitely something we'll be looking into\" for the next forecast.

Lawmakers asked for more detail on the geographic distribution and the price bands driving the increase. Several members raised the possibility that in‑movers who sold high-priced homes elsewhere are buying with cash in Vermont and that activity by second‑home buyers or short‑term rental investors could be shifting local markets; staff said such behavioral drivers can be analyzed but require further mapping and time.

Why this matters: property transfer receipts are a new revenue stream in the current budget cycle and atypical strength or weakness in that line can materially affect near-term forecasts. Staff told members they expect substantially more clarity by the July forecast, after mapping transaction-level data and correcting earlier formula errors identified in the preliminary tables.","During a Ways & Means Q&A, staff reported property transfer tax receipts appear higher than initial projections; members pressed for granular analysis of whether gains reflect price changes, high-end transactions or second‑home activity and asked staff to map geographic and value concentration for the July forecast.",{"_33":88,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":89,"_41":90,"_43":91,"_45":92,"_47":93,"_49":94,"_51":95,"_53":96,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":97,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":98,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":56,"_74":56},6377919,"Ways & Means hearing: forecaster says U.S. GDP above 3% but state lacks granular wealth data",365,85820,450995,"/Search/View?dp=1&key=2138558-5df5d73941429faaf90bba1cc2917bad&start=85&end=450","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/2138558-5df5d73941429faaf90bba1cc2917bad/thumbnail_85820.jpg","/articles/6377919/Vermont/Ways-Means-hearing-forecaster-says-US-GDP-above-3-but-state-lacks-granular-wealth-data","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6377919-cb3693d7b79d22e7321f1386a8f86280/orig.mp4?Expires=1775217254&Signature=M5w3lpdhoGTvCz1gYAo~6buNrhsqoEs6~qJJ7H~vAuoY0op2Dpdbr-z27Kfax3FGL88A6hyblmJqBTCF5CRN0pvtoA3R5sexOEd4URbny3DNjV7fmJy06HorxOX8X0YsxNwu97cyMVUqM3AoXTZyTNheZwQNXCNFUP00gNMaXZQhg~eCB7O30oybsfUw~uJ4bvXiSa1y02HyJI57sfNKmqu7SJwux2C0W4eBuztnctxRzUiHGwrbTeyrTdlBMVjPdmPVUqldZFBlQGlR2L-q3s8Khzr3EhlBMBMOjLY1g8Ve0Y7gL6IzGNM-v4OlzNLzgHhCymeMrtcVUlhMzwogFg__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","Tom Kivett, staff member, told the Ways & Means Committee that broad national measures show a stronger economy even though many Vermonters may not feel it.

\"The US economy is tracking above real GDP growth, tracking above 3%,\" Kivett said, adding that the stock market’s gains feed into personal and corporate revenue. He also warned that aggregate figures mask large differences across households: \"Whenever you look at an aggregate statistic, it's comprised of 1,000,000 and 1,000,000 of you know, conditions.\"

Kivett told lawmakers the committee’s revenue models rely on measures such as personal income, retail sales and asset-price effects. He cited the Federal Reserve’s data showing the bottom 50% of households owned about 1% of corporate equities and mutual funds as of Q3 2024, and said that consumer debt is concentrated among lower-wealth households.

The lack of state-level wealth statistics was a recurring concern. \"There are not, credible wealth statistics at the state level,\" Kivett said, noting federal surveys have a much larger sample of very high‑wealth households than state data sources. Rep. Wozlak and other members asked for more localized figures to understand whether national inequality trends mirror conditions in Vermont.

Kivett recommended follow-up work and flagged the next forecast cycle as an opportunity to provide more state‑specific breakdowns. Committee staff also pointed members to a staff report drafted by Joyce Manchester as a reference for further study.

Why this matters: Kivett said market and asset-price gains boost tax bases that feed the general fund—especially income, corporate and estate taxes—so uneven wealth gains matter for both revenue projections and policy choices. He told members staff will keep drilling into distributional questions ahead of the next forecast.","At a Ways & Means Committee Q&A, Tom Kivett told lawmakers national GDP and market gains are boosting revenue forecasts even as gains are uneven; staff and members flagged a lack of credible state-level wealth data and asked for more localized analysis ahead of the July forecast.","actionData","errors"]

Article not found

Childcare payroll tax collections lag initial forecast; staff says catch-up and compliance still possible

Committee told property-transfer receipts exceed early expectations; staff to map where gains came from

Ways & Means hearing: forecaster says U.S. GDP above 3% but state lacks granular wealth data