Vermont faces population decline as birth rates drop and migration trends shift

Vermont's population dynamics took center stage at the recent House Ways and Means meeting, with officials discussing significant shifts in age demographics and migration patterns. The conversation highlighted a concerning trend: Vermont's population fell by approximately 215 people in 2024 compared to the previous year, a decline attributed to lower birth rates and ongoing migration effects.

Officials noted that birth rates have sharply decreased during the pandemic and remain below pre-pandemic levels. This decline, coupled with the aging population, raises questions about the future demographic landscape of the state. "There are always those two pieces to think about when you're talking about changes in the age cohorts in Vermont," one official remarked, emphasizing the dual impact of aging residents and migration.

While preliminary estimates indicate a slight population drop, experts believe these numbers may be revised as more data becomes available. "The number right now is so preliminary that they haven't released any of the age cohort information," one participant explained, suggesting that the current figures may not accurately reflect long-term trends.

Despite the recent decline, the overall population remains higher than it was five years ago, with an increase of about 41,100 people since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This long-term growth trend offers a glimmer of hope amid the current challenges, as officials continue to analyze the data and its implications for Vermont's future. The meeting underscored the importance of understanding these demographic shifts as the state navigates its path forward.