On November 19, 2024, the Multnomah County Board convened to discuss pressing financial challenges and projections affecting the region's economic landscape. The meeting highlighted significant declines in property values, particularly in commercial real estate, which could have far-reaching implications for the county's revenue and budget planning.

A key focus of the discussion was the substantial drop in real market values of commercial properties, with an alarming $8 billion decline noted since 2019. This downturn is primarily attributed to the office sector, where high-rise buildings have seen value reductions of up to 74%. The concentration of these declines in downtown areas raises concerns about the long-term viability of the commercial real estate market in Multnomah County.

The board presented a detailed analysis of the top 20 office properties, revealing that eight of these properties now have assessed values that match their real market values, indicating a significant decrease in property worth. This trend is expected to continue into 2025, further straining the county's financial outlook.

In addition to property tax concerns, the board addressed the business income tax (BIT), which constitutes 26% of the discretionary general fund revenue. The BIT is closely tied to corporate profits, and while there has been a recent recovery in revenues, the board expressed caution due to the high concentration of payments from a small number of large firms. This concentration poses a risk to the county's financial stability, as fluctuations in the profitability of these companies could lead to significant revenue shortfalls.

The meeting also touched on the recovery of domestic air travel, which has shown double-digit year-over-year growth, suggesting a potential boost in related tax revenues. However, the board noted a concerning decline in average bed usage for U.S. Marshal services, prompting a downward revision of revenue forecasts in that area.

Overall, the discussions underscored the need for Multnomah County to navigate a complex economic landscape marked by declining property values and concentrated tax revenues. As the board prepares for future budget considerations, the implications of these trends will be critical in shaping the county's financial strategies moving forward.