[{"_1":2,"_100":-5,"_101":-5},"loaderData",{"_3":4,"_26":27},"root",{"_5":6,"_17":10,"_18":19,"_20":21,"_22":10,"_23":-5,"_24":-5,"_25":10},"user",{"_7":8,"_9":10,"_11":10,"_12":-5,"_13":-5,"_14":15,"_16":-5},"roles",[],"isAuthenticated",false,"isPremium","planName","subscriptionStatus","featureFlags",{},"insightsBudget","isDevelopmentHost","userPreferences",{},"recaptchaSiteKey","6LcvOJcUAAAAAHsB-gPGfGktcRlKpH7OTIU_dMTD","isImpersonating","impersonation","affiliateStatus","isFreedomPortal","routes/v2/article/layout",{"_28":29,"_30":31},"notFound",true,"relatedArticles",[32,76,88],{"_33":34,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":40,"_41":42,"_43":44,"_45":46,"_47":48,"_49":50,"_51":52,"_53":54,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":60,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":66,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":74,"_75":74},"mediaId",6357633,"mediaKeyId","2213846-496074014770c955cdf5cbdefed98035","parentId",2213846,"title","Forecasters say soft landing likely but federal-policy uncertainty could alter path","audioSeconds",422,"startMs",1047730,"endMs",1469960,"viewUrl","/Search/View?dp=1&key=2213846-496074014770c955cdf5cbdefed98035&start=1047&end=1469","thumbnailUrl","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/2213846-496074014770c955cdf5cbdefed98035/thumbnail_1047730.jpg","articleUrl","/articles/6357633/Arizona/Forecasters-say-soft-landing-likely-but-federal-policy-uncertainty-could-alter-path","mediaUrl","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6357633-c6d2bf176770e46cbb1ac1733f988123/orig.mp4?Expires=1775538422&Signature=CkpzGFCqNt3Zg1iaNTxBMf3qgIGCB1eTTYjGcaG7ROvZ95iXMVfkUmjlsTlkgPITw6QL1JInjEUPfP7KANYz6IEr~D-hGlRNpIirWivUlvCS7cdAiHU5Z-8OSXphGpj2SSNyElxokUf7s6vVru8GnLNxCT7BHAioyNnweH3RyBpfVZvDsu13IShX5SliyE7fcMEALEYnEORtbuzShk0QNwYEZ4gupeIhP3BW1RUfeGF4SGrnftf9jGxXaLyVt5pLRAGIrJ5cxuTzhOSb~OCCjthkUx1IiWp7HpARFUFBZ0N1NX3jRl~ZpedDtol~C1I5lFhogYRpmh-PoLftXj7ZMw__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","author","Arizona State Legislature","date","2025-01-30T00:00:00Z","article","At the JLBC Finance Advisory Committee meeting, external forecaster Danny Court and JLBC presenters described a national economy that has largely avoided recessionary signals despite numerous red-flag indicators over the past two years.

Court said the notion of a \"soft landing\" — the Federal Reserve bringing inflation toward target without triggering a recession — has become more likely. He noted headline inflation was down from its 2021–22 highs but still above the Fed’s 2 percent target; recent consensus forecasts (Blue Chip) put inflation near 2.5 percent for 2025. \"We have not achieved [2 percent],\" Court said, noting core services and shelter remain the largest contributors to persistent inflation.

Labor-market indicators remain strong, Court said: unemployment near 4.1 percent, continued job growth and a narrower quits rate. Household wage growth has moderated to below 4.5 percent, which he said helps restrain inflationary demand. National GDP growth forecasts cited in the presentation were roughly 2.2 percent for 2025 and 2.0 percent for 2026.

Court cautioned that federal-policy choices could materially change the outlook. He highlighted two types of policy risk: large-scale tariffs and aggressive immigration enforcement. Tariffs at the levels discussed in campaign rhetoric would be inflationary and could cause recessionary effects if broadly applied; Court called targeted tariffs more likely than the broad tariffs sometimes threatened. He also noted that large-scale deportations would reduce labor supply, which could be inflationary and harm economic activity if implemented at scale.

Panelists emphasized long-term fiscal risk from large federal deficits and rising interest costs. Court noted interest payments on federal debt have recently risen substantially and will continue to grow, increasing long-term fiscal vulnerability.

Panelists concluded that absent a major shock the national outlook is for modest growth, but they repeatedly flagged policy uncertainty as a substantial risk that could change that path. Local consequences for Arizona — in jobs, migration and revenue — will depend on which federal actions are implemented and at what scale.","mediaType","Video","parentTitle","01/30/2025 - Finance Advisory Committee","oneSentenceSummary","National and Arizona forecasters at the JLBC advisory meeting characterized the U.S. economy as approaching a ‘soft landing’ with inflation moderating, but they cautioned that policy moves such as tariffs or large-scale deportations and ongoing federal deficits pose downside risks to growth and inflation dynamics.","taxTitle","2025 Legislature Arizona, Arizona","taxId",78572,"location","Arizona","headline","","shortSummary",{"_33":77,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":78,"_41":79,"_43":80,"_45":81,"_47":82,"_49":83,"_51":84,"_53":85,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":86,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":87,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":74,"_75":74},6357637,"Panelists warn housing affordability worsening in Phoenix area; mortgage rates and prices cited",80,2446600,2526740,"/Search/View?dp=1&key=2213846-496074014770c955cdf5cbdefed98035&start=2446&end=2526","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/2213846-496074014770c955cdf5cbdefed98035/thumbnail_2446600.jpg","/articles/6357637/Arizona/Panelists-warn-housing-affordability-worsening-in-Phoenix-area-mortgage-rates-and-prices-cited","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6357637-0cb84d4c29de64861c4f36f169d91bfb/orig.mp4?Expires=1775538422&Signature=aZcnNxBWQoA9CuOB0w-U5UM-vzDERvGefsdDdqplhnl33F7ZRQm2gErNLvGdFKSiW-7Y3C49M-JB2oQBVdeMOvEo2AxASKl95fuotvY3W-PZdK2vWWmMpU1Zm0sPH3NcC6kyYSoQjuPErKwBbNb5P9xQfG4xVq8DlqrKwvvtgrQKlo2Qy~nRQKk7eqqaBz3AtWpvTiLmAAsnYC~CC8dIKkmQxzZ8WZYQ6AfNTkxxJ8G7R8n47ODOUVxDHmgftBk9vd2KxiguD6mD4iY~8eO3M4v0ngMXOehzhD61YrEMIz8Y5UC0YBJvXQsIODspP4FPcJUCnc12EStxak7NKEIAsg__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","Panelists at the January Finance Advisory Committee meeting said housing affordability has declined substantially in the Phoenix metro and that interest-rate relief alone will not restore affordability.

Danny Court of the Elliott Pollack Company told the panel that a combination of higher prices and higher mortgage rates has pushed the salary required to purchase a median-priced home in Maricopa County to roughly six figures. \"We have not seen any retreat in housing prices, and nor do we see much retreat in the cost of obtaining a mortgage,\" Court said, and he stressed that even if mortgage rates fall to 5 percent, median-price homes would still require household salaries near or above $100,000.

Court reviewed several dynamics: strong in-migration (particularly from higher-cost states such as California), a sustained housing shortage in shelter supply, and a \"lock-in\" effect from long-term low-rate mortgages where existing homeowners with sub-4 percent loans are reluctant to sell. He noted new-home permitting in Greater Phoenix rose about 19 percent from 2023 levels, approaching 25,000 new homes, but that builders cannot easily deliver large volumes at lower price points inside Maricopa County.

Panelists identified policy and supply responses that could help: increasing the supply of 'missing middle' housing types, municipal regulatory reforms that reduce cost burdens, and expanded product types priced below current medians (including options available in Pinal County). Lorenzo (Board of Regents) and George Hammond (University of Arizona) both stressed the importance of housing policy for sustained population growth; Lorenzo said stabilizing housing affordability would \"go a long way\" for the state's economy.

The committee did not take action; presenters flagged affordability as a long-term structural issue that will affect the state’s labor market and population growth.

Ending: JLBC will continue to monitor housing data for future forecast updates; the next forecast is scheduled for April.","Economists and panelists at the JLBC Finance Advisory Committee said housing affordability in Greater Phoenix has deteriorated sharply, with median-home buyers needing six-figure incomes under current prices and mortgage rates; panelists urged more housing choice and municipal regulatory changes to improve affordability.",{"_33":89,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":90,"_41":91,"_43":92,"_45":93,"_47":94,"_49":95,"_51":96,"_53":97,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":98,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":99,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":74,"_75":74},6357642,"JLBC projects modest revenue growth; $935 million projected ending balance before adjustments",1002,3360,1005449,"/Search/View?dp=1&key=2213846-496074014770c955cdf5cbdefed98035&start=3&end=1005","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/2213846-496074014770c955cdf5cbdefed98035/thumbnail_3360.jpg","/articles/6357642/Arizona/JLBC-projects-modest-revenue-growth-935-million-projected-ending-balance-before-adjustments","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6357642-6f839d190f4990a9a15453357b7d7e2a/orig.mp4?Expires=1775538422&Signature=ScFXPsab9MB6~fb4I0w68cy1PZEVVSNwc6BMuhgWXHVXq5GWh~j52gPWLNr~Q3sUHrGX2aW9U45dvDh-NQrscim8Cy9EcA8sifdA5aU5e1wydiHznJrUUZrx4zdX0IZ0sIsHU~oK~FcoXTZjAnXc0yXdXb8XgMQp4wF1WJlBLo9XFdD7kGmmA4Vh-Btwd3Qbx8D5RtOZ8xE8SFVOB~YzcO1npsC-EXwLGNO7fYBHxqgXXDBCUbsgL3Ql1GtclUj-fe07w3O1HqJ7VBferm8~ctx7RPYACCQvIpx0eK6Ah6mQeOQtYslG1Mg3Z75laxid5jDipgLtLj~6lerWzHM0Og__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","The Joint Legislative Budget Committee’s Finance Advisory Committee heard January briefings showing modest statewide revenue growth and continuing uncertainty about how much of recent gains are repeatable. Richard (JLBC staff) said the committee’s four-sector forecast projects general-fund revenue growth of 2.7 percent for the current fiscal year and gradual improvement through FY28.

The projections matter because state budgeting uses a three-year planning horizon. Richard said available resources for the FY26 plan start at $935,000,000 in projected ending cash but that staff proposed setting aside $50,000,000 as an ending-balance reserve. He also said two recurring items — school facility repairs and subsidies to the state employee health insurance system — together account for roughly $183,000,000 and $140,000,000 (as shown on the slides), reducing what the committee regards as freely available one-time dollars to about $560,000,000.

Hans Lisonbee, chief economist for JLBC, summarized the four-sector process used to form the baseline forecast and the near-term performance of major tax categories. \"For the current fiscal year, GF revenue is projected to grow by 2.7 percent,\" Lisonbee said, adding that the office expects gradual improvement to 3.4 percent in FY26 and 4.8 percent in FY28.

Year-to-date comparisons to the budget enacted for FY25 show mixed results: Richard reported that individual income-tax receipts are about $126,000,000 above the forecast (with withholding up about 7.4 percent year over year), corporate collections are roughly $97,000,000 above forecast (about 11 percent growth), and sales-tax collections are up about 3.4 percent year to date, roughly in line with the enacted forecast. The JLBC noted more than 60 percent of the $425,000,000 positive variance in FY24 collections came from non-tax sources, including likely one-time Medicaid reimbursements.

The JLBC baseline includes a $557,000,000 spending increase in FY26 when combining ongoing formula-driven increases and the removal of some one-time appropriations; staff estimated general-fund spending at about $16,600,000,000 for FY26 versus $17,500,000,000 in forecast revenue before set-asides. The committee also noted the state's budget stabilization fund (the rainy-day fund) holds approximately $1,600,000,000 and is excluded from the general-fund cash-balance figures discussed.

Jack Brown (JLBC staff) reviewed differences between the JLBC baseline and the executive budget. On a cumulative basis for FY25–FY28 the executive’s forecast shows roughly $360,000,000 more revenue than the JLBC baseline, and the executive budget also proposes several policy changes that would affect the general fund. Brown listed three tax-policy proposals in the executive budget: increase and extend the low-income housing tax credit (from a current $4,000,000 annual award limit and extending the program through calendar year 2031 while raising the annual limit to $10,000,000), a new corporate income-tax credit (estimated at $1,000,000) to subsidize employer-provided childcare assistance, and a one-time transfer of $75,000,000 from the prescription drug rebate fund to the general fund.

No formal committee votes or statutory changes were taken during the meeting; presenters described forecasts, assumptions and policy options for legislators to consider ahead of upcoming budget deliberations. The committee plans its next forecast update in April.","Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee officials told the Finance Advisory Committee that general fund revenue should grow slowly over the next three years, producing a projected $935 million ending balance for FY26 before set-asides and ongoing one-time items reduce that amount to roughly $560 million.","actionData","errors"]

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Forecasters say soft landing likely but federal-policy uncertainty could alter path

Panelists warn housing affordability worsening in Phoenix area; mortgage rates and prices cited

JLBC projects modest revenue growth; $935 million projected ending balance before adjustments