[{"_1":2,"_88":-5,"_89":-5},"loaderData",{"_3":4,"_26":27},"root",{"_5":6,"_17":10,"_18":19,"_20":21,"_22":10,"_23":-5,"_24":-5,"_25":10},"user",{"_7":8,"_9":10,"_11":10,"_12":-5,"_13":-5,"_14":15,"_16":-5},"roles",[],"isAuthenticated",false,"isPremium","planName","subscriptionStatus","featureFlags",{},"insightsBudget","isDevelopmentHost","userPreferences",{},"recaptchaSiteKey","6LcvOJcUAAAAAHsB-gPGfGktcRlKpH7OTIU_dMTD","isImpersonating","impersonation","affiliateStatus","isFreedomPortal","routes/v2/article/layout",{"_28":29,"_30":31},"notFound",true,"relatedArticles",[32,76],{"_33":34,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":40,"_41":42,"_43":44,"_45":46,"_47":48,"_49":50,"_51":52,"_53":54,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":60,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":66,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":74,"_75":74},"mediaId",6343618,"mediaKeyId","2251914-30728ffaa95c8cccb35311fe415b1043","parentId",2251914,"title","DPS outlines demand forecast, efficiency programs and Renewable Energy Standard compliance to House energy committee","audioSeconds",2672,"startMs",2680000,"endMs",7083,"viewUrl","/Search/View?dp=1&key=2251914-30728ffaa95c8cccb35311fe415b1043&start=2680&end=7","thumbnailUrl","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/2251914-30728ffaa95c8cccb35311fe415b1043/thumbnail_2680000.jpg","articleUrl","/articles/6343618/Vermont/DPS-outlines-demand-forecast-efficiency-programs-and-Renewable-Energy-Standard-compliance-to-House-energy-committee","mediaUrl","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6343618-e844698b676bc0baf30d539d58fd0b20/orig.mp4?Expires=1775559709&Signature=KWmiv3DphHgp4KAZ-vXgKCDW6HmPDjc2X6JxKyVy95L~Zu0GXD0lIzyQH7SzNYrvGryDnXCsGa21etyu7wOGBCkEVOWhnZIxOGGJC6MeAz~hQ1ovA2RE-LkCoXl6LkhC7rRpaXn2FsaZLhbiE1cD8ZUZxhATqFywzTRJKPfY2dYH3F7jtrQOHuvyeGmHYe~3eBoPGGsf5G7lQHpQcXu4VMvys6nur7DLkMO~Wxz2dvw20TpheSRHLjaTjhnZzQ6z8gGHy6fVU~piqEEeUzL3XQN4hCuJjDNblJZngRxWFwOD4ZXjo3zNxPUPKNg1IvifGCYktqpq1Mjo6e1ZB4Lq8A__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","author","Vermont House Energy and Digital Infrastructure","date","2025-02-04T00:00:00Z","article","TJ Poor, director of regulated utility planning at the Vermont Department of Public Service, told the House Committee on Energy and Digital Infrastructure on Feb. 4, 2025, that Vermont expects increasing electric demand as transportation and heating electrify but that efficiency programs have kept recent statewide demand relatively flat.

Why it matters: Forecasts, efficiency program budgets and Renewable Energy Standard rules determine what resources utilities buy, how much they pay, and how quickly Vermont moves toward decarbonization. Those choices affect customer rates, local clean‑energy development and the state’s greenhouse‑gas outcomes.

Poor reviewed long‑range load forecasts and said the state has been winter peaking and could become more strongly winter‑peaking under aggressive electrification scenarios unless load‑management and storage offset new winter heating demand. He said statewide peak demand has been roughly at or below 1,000 megawatts for two decades but that forecasts show growth if electrification proceeds without broader mitigation.

Efficiency programs: Poor described Vermont’s long‑running efficiency framework. Efficiency Vermont funds energy efficiency outside Burlington Electric’s service territory from a small charge on customers’ bills; Burlington operates its own efficiency services. Poor said the state spends about $50 million a year on electric efficiency programs (not counting thermal/process fuel efficiency) and another $6–9 million a year on thermal/process programs funded by Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative proceeds and other revenues. He said efficiency is a major reason demand has remained flat and estimated cumulative acquired savings equal roughly a 15% reduction of what demand would otherwise be.

Renewable Energy Standard (RES): Poor summarized the RES tiers and compliance mechanics. Key points he gave to the committee:

- Tier 1 (total renewable supply): covers a large share of load and may include legacy resources; utilities must meet a statewide percent target over time.
- Tier 2 (distributed generation): requires a growing share of in‑state, distribution‑connected resources (≤5 MW) — recently increased to 20% for some utilities by 2032/2035.
- Tier 4 (new regional renewables): added in most recent legislation; requires utilities to secure additional new renewable generation anywhere in New England (timing and shares differ by utility).
- Tier 3 (beneficial electrification/fossil‑fuel reduction): requires utilities to invest in programs that reduce fossil fuel consumption in buildings and processes; much of Tier 3 compliance has been heat‑pump installations.

Poor explained Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) mechanics: each megawatt‑hour of renewable generation creates a REC and utilities may buy, bank (limited multi‑year banking), or retire RECs to meet tier obligations. He said Vermont’s small Tier‑2 market often tracks Massachusetts Class I REC pricing as a regional proxy; recently that proxy has been near about $40 per MWh. Existing (Tier‑1) REC prices historically have been low (under $1/MWh) but spiked in 2022 (approaching $10/MWh) and have subsequently moderated to roughly $3–4/MWh according to broker quotes used in department modeling.

Poor also noted that the department conducts efficiency potential studies to set budgets; a full potential study typically costs on the order of $150,000–$200,000. He said the department uses a social‑cost‑of‑carbon approach when performing societal‑scale benefit assessments and offered to return with slides quantifying greenhouse‑gas reductions and monetized societal benefits.

Committee members asked about how RES costs translate to rates, how much of current in‑state generation is banked for compliance, and whether distributed technologies and AI can reduce transmission losses. Poor said some benefits and costs can be monetized (hedging value, avoided capacity and transmission costs, emissions reductions) and that departmental analyses include many such values, though some benefits are harder to quantify precisely.

Ending: Poor said he would provide additional slides on the social‑cost‑of‑carbon analysis, generation and REC holdings on request and offered to return to present further detail on standard‑offer, net metering and load‑management programs. No committee votes were taken during the briefing.

","mediaType","Video","parentTitle","House Energy and Digital Infrastructure 2025-02-04 2:00pm","oneSentenceSummary","TJ Poor, director of regulated utility planning at the Vermont Department of Public Service, told the House committee on Feb. 4 that Vermont faces rising electric demand if electrification accelerates but that efficiency programs have so far kept overall load relatively flat.","taxTitle","Environment & Energy, HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, Committees, Legislative , Vermont","taxId",30749,"location","Vermont","headline","","shortSummary",{"_33":77,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":78,"_41":79,"_43":80,"_45":81,"_47":82,"_49":83,"_51":84,"_53":85,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":86,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":87,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":74,"_75":74},6343622,"Vermont regulators tell lawmakers grid will stay up if U.S. energy import tariff is imposed, but rate impacts remain uncertain",2570,109000,2679000,"/Search/View?dp=1&key=2251914-30728ffaa95c8cccb35311fe415b1043&start=109&end=2679","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/2251914-30728ffaa95c8cccb35311fe415b1043/thumbnail_109000.jpg","/articles/6343622/Vermont/Vermont-regulators-tell-lawmakers-grid-will-stay-up-if-US-energy-import-tariff-is-imposed-but-rate-impacts-remain-uncertain","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6343622-308bf90e61e95c9d4dd6719f981644b3/orig.mp4?Expires=1775559709&Signature=GkHMYlprEiw4z6B1u-GjD7OxFS3KK9WWTVmkzN8jyBHrvHpggQcm6KN5QiWJmkPVqvm7uYIKDW3TyZawo4-Q5ppBUX31KXA58~hk3PTB0Urpc8n7JCCeJxfswBjsLnFc9YPcZ69nIZJD8gzNy4OmEd2tnSr9u5r2K7ZX3dWh33iH~dh3WPZNf7~bROroMG6OfGREXyihI8xNCVKY4cnl-Y2DVsAErmMiFJwHO5ANZkFcY1IXAbqdghp0Ox8V1thCPY1Wtke~mOA9JoIWWqcvBbueFIxhw4cu4DjMN1bsuoTwZwlRN4JHoaAaUWEdq875XrYkkNstuNrAsNYKU3ZybQ__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","For the record, Department of Public Service Commissioner Carrick Joffin told the House Committee on Energy and Digital Infrastructure on Feb. 4, 2025, that a proposed U.S. energy-import tariff — currently described in public sources as a 10% levy — has provoked intense analysis but that key details are not yet available.

Joffin told the panel the most immediate, critical question was reliability: “the grid will remain reliable,” he said, adding that Vermont Electric Power Company (VELCO) and distribution utilities run frequent scenario analyses and were assuring the department that the lights would stay on even under constrained supplies. But he emphasized that the federal notice of the tariff had been published and withdrawn from the Federal Register and that the department still lacked the final tariff language needed to judge legal and rate impacts.

Why it matters: New federal trade measures affecting electricity imports could raise wholesale power prices across New England and change how Vermont utilities buy power. Vermont relies on a mix of long-term contracts and market purchases; how the tariff applies to specific contracts or to intermediary subsidiaries could determine whether customers see immediate increases.

Joffin summarized the picture utilities and the department are now trying to clarify. He said Vermont Gas Systems (VGS) estimates an additional gross cost to recover of about $6 million to $7 million per year if the tariff applies to its supply chain; the company is exploring tariff- and rate-structure options and alternative fuel sourcing to mitigate that exposure. On the state’s large Hydro‑Québec contract, Joffin said that contract represents roughly 24% of Vermont’s generation portfolio and amounts to about 218–225 megawatts per year through 2035, stepping down to about 56 megawatts by 2038; he cited a total of roughly 1.3 terawatt‑hours covered by the agreement.

Joffin told lawmakers that whether the executive‑order driven tariff would apply to the Hydro‑Québec arrangement was not clear. He said the Vermont contract is with HQUS (a Hydro‑Québec subsidiary) and structured as an internal bilateral transaction not tied to a single physical delivery point — legal features that may affect whether the tariff is triggered.

On exposure to the spot market, Joffin provided a utility snapshot, which he described as illustrative and preliminary: Green Mountain Power — 0% exposure to wholesale market purchases; Stowe — 12%; Washington Electric Co‑op — 1%; Hyde Park — 3.5%; Vermont Public Power Supply Authority (VPSA) — 5%; Vermont Electric Cooperative — 10%. He also said Vermont Electric Cooperative’s preliminary estimate of a tariff applied at the 10% level could translate to about $2 million per year for that co‑op, roughly a 2% rate increase, subject to clarifications and mitigation steps.

Committee members pressed how Vermonters would be notified. Joffin said the department and the governor’s office are part of a cabinet‑level task force and that the department has urged utilities to communicate directly with customers: “They have the clearest relationship with their own customers,” he said, and the department will convene, analyze, and advise. He said the department is gathering data, pressing utilities for clarifying analyses, and will propose mitigation strategies as facts firm up.

No formal committee action or vote was taken. Joffin and staff said the department will continue stress testing scenarios, provide follow‑up materials to the committee, and participate in the cabinet task force to coordinate communication and strategy.

Ending: Joffin told the committee the department will continue work as if the tariff could take effect and will return with more detail; meanwhile utilities were asked to prepare customers and pursue mitigation options.

","For the record, Department of Public Service Commissioner Carrick Joffin told the House Committee on Energy and Digital Infrastructure on Feb. 4, 2025, that a proposed U.S. energy-import tariff has raised major unanswered legal and cost questions though grid reliability appears preserved.","actionData","errors"]

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DPS outlines demand forecast, efficiency programs and Renewable Energy Standard compliance to House energy committee

Vermont regulators tell lawmakers grid will stay up if U.S. energy import tariff is imposed, but rate impacts remain uncertain