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Study confirms high school GPA as key predictor of postsecondary success

September 26, 2023 | Maryland Department of Education, School Boards, Maryland


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Study confirms high school GPA as key predictor of postsecondary success
The Maryland State Board of Education convened on September 26, 2023, to discuss critical findings regarding high school performance and its impact on post-secondary outcomes. The meeting focused on the importance of high school GPA as a significant predictor of students' success after graduation.

The first item on the agenda highlighted a primary analysis that defined College and Career Readiness (CCR) standards at the end of grade 10. The findings indicated that high school GPA consistently emerged as a key indicator of post-secondary progress. A supplemental analysis was also conducted, examining outcomes for students who graduated high school, which yielded similar results, reinforcing the reliability of GPA as a predictor.

Further discussions explored various post-secondary progress benchmarks, particularly concerning college GPA and student retention rates. The analysis confirmed that the same conclusions applied across different metrics, emphasizing the importance of high school performance in shaping future educational trajectories.

A notable point of discussion arose when the focus shifted to students who opted not to pursue college immediately after high school. The analysis revealed mixed results regarding career progress for these individuals, suggesting that the interim CCR standards performed better in predicting outcomes compared to alternative measures. However, the findings were approached with caution, as the data indicated that very few students were consistently employed or earning a living wage shortly after graduation. This limitation raised concerns about the reliability of the results, prompting the need for further investigation into the employment landscape for recent high school graduates.

The meeting concluded with a call for additional research to better understand the factors influencing career outcomes for students entering the workforce directly after high school. The board acknowledged the complexities of the data and the necessity for ongoing analysis to support educational strategies and policies.

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