[{"_1":2,"_88":-5,"_89":-5},"loaderData",{"_3":4,"_26":27},"root",{"_5":6,"_17":10,"_18":19,"_20":21,"_22":10,"_23":-5,"_24":-5,"_25":10},"user",{"_7":8,"_9":10,"_11":10,"_12":-5,"_13":-5,"_14":15,"_16":-5},"roles",[],"isAuthenticated",false,"isPremium","planName","subscriptionStatus","featureFlags",{},"insightsBudget","isDevelopmentHost","userPreferences",{},"recaptchaSiteKey","6LcvOJcUAAAAAHsB-gPGfGktcRlKpH7OTIU_dMTD","isImpersonating","impersonation","affiliateStatus","isFreedomPortal","routes/v2/article/layout",{"_28":29,"_30":31},"notFound",true,"relatedArticles",[32,76],{"_33":34,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":40,"_41":42,"_43":44,"_45":46,"_47":48,"_49":50,"_51":52,"_53":54,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":60,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":66,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":74,"_75":74},"mediaId",6296396,"mediaKeyId","2516329-4a41e378c8a12dffe12bff0a5d4921ff","parentId",2516329,"title","20‑year Medicaid forecast: Alaska spending projected to grow about 4.7% yearly; reimbursement and chronic care drive costs","audioSeconds",2298,"startMs",2933000,"endMs",5231000,"viewUrl","/Search/View?dp=1&key=2516329-4a41e378c8a12dffe12bff0a5d4921ff&start=2933&end=5231","thumbnailUrl","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/2516329-4a41e378c8a12dffe12bff0a5d4921ff/thumbnail_2933000.jpg","articleUrl","/articles/6296396/Alaska/20year-Medicaid-forecast-Alaska-spending-projected-to-grow-about-47-yearly-reimbursement-and-chronic-care-drive-costs","mediaUrl","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6296396-fa28af3db7af4356a85235000e96722b/orig.mp4?Expires=1771118159&Signature=KKk6TuXWSJc5SGv8~gdQXNcwmWjps2T1GUKqxNYk4mYfIg2ajg4rJMX6IW4z4ID0tkc4L96L2jIaqcD~zXIXhcHPGx-XpmH9TmOAJWFB9QaX0WFW9euvT3FLyMffcOQV9gElGSZIWHoMa1RdTYRXeWUjB1cWTsws2gbZBdvROSa7HQZBS3mrqomXF~~Zaw7Z1Jju3EfqdY6qyht8zRpHtwtcAa7AvGwhmwaMYkmoKK2pHcUz8hp64t7BM4RQVoJSDm8X7XgCFZ~NiaQlufG53XZsZQFEuBj6djIjiZUqZgCVQwAjRk54LcJgv-7IKwjSiyT4reATCammssHjazK3-w__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","author","Alaska State Legislature","date","2025-03-05T09:00:00Z","article","Ted Helvoit, president of Evergreen Economics, told the Senate Finance Committee on March 5 that Alaska’s Medicaid program is projected to grow at about 4.7% annually over the next 20 years if the program remains as it exists today, reaching roughly $7.4 billion in total spending by 2045.

“The forecast… focuses on the Medicaid program as it exists today,” Helvoit said, explaining the forecast’s baseline assumption and why it serves as the legislature’s reference point for evaluating proposed policy changes.

Helvoit reviewed the program’s recent dynamics: the federal continuous‑enrollment requirement during the COVID emergency raised enrollment by about 40,000 people; roughly 18,000 people were removed during the federal‑required redetermination period. He emphasized the distinction between enrollees (those enrolled in Medicaid) and recipients (those who actually receive services) and said recent data show recipients have remained roughly flat even as enrollment changed.

The presentation identified three primary long‑term drivers of cost growth: demographic change (Alaska’s overall population projected to be flat or shrink, with a growing senior cohort), increased reimbursement rates paid to providers, and a rising share of spending concentrated among recipients with multiple chronic conditions. Helvoit said reimbursement growth is the largest single contributor to future cost increases in his model, and that provider rates have recently begun rising faster than general medical price inflation.

Helvoit presented key figures from the forecast and recent program history: total spending in 2025 was estimated to be a little under $3.0 billion; annual growth of spending per Medicaid recipient averaged about 8.7% in the last two fiscal years on a month‑to‑month basis; 1% of Medicaid recipients account for about 22% of program spending while the 50% of recipients with the lowest spending account for about 4%.

He noted that Medicaid expansion and the program’s current structure materially changed the historic relationship between enrollees and recipients: in fiscal 2024 fewer than seven in 10 enrollees used services. Helvoit also discussed the Department of Health’s efforts (IHS reclaiming) that have increased the federal share of funding for some services and helped reduce state general fund growth compared with earlier forecasts.

Committee members asked about several risks and operational controls. Senator Kaufman asked whether the state has adequate fraud‑and‑abuse controls and whether enrollment records are validated; Helvoit said a state unit does that work but his analysis relies on Medicaid Management Information System data and does not audit program integrity. Senators also asked whether behavioral health and substance‑use diagnoses are driving costs; Helvoit said the prevalence of behavioral‑health and substance‑use diagnoses among higher‑cost recipients has grown and is an important cost‑growth risk.

Helvoit said the forecast does not assume policy changes — including changes to federal matching rates for the expansion population — and flagged federal match for expansion as a key external risk. He gave an example: if the 90% federal match for the non‑IHS expansion population were reduced by one percentage point, Alaska’s share of that portion of spending would rise by an estimated $4.6 million in a single year (using the example math from the presentation).

The committee did not take action on the forecast; the report was presented as the Legislature’s baseline document for budget planning and future policy analysis.","mediaType","Video","parentTitle","03/05/2025 09:00 AM Senate FINANCE","oneSentenceSummary","An Evergreen Economics forecast presented to the Senate Finance Committee projects Alaska Medicaid spending will grow an average 4.7% annually, driven mainly by rising reimbursement rates and a growing share of recipients with chronic conditions; enrollment and recipient trends after COVID are also highlighted.","taxTitle","2025 Legislature Alaska, Alaska","taxId",78559,"location","Alaska","headline","","shortSummary",{"_33":77,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":78,"_41":79,"_43":80,"_45":81,"_47":82,"_49":83,"_51":84,"_53":85,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":86,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":87,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":74,"_75":74},6296401,"Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute asks Legislature for $10M to chase U.S. market gap after Russia ban",2467,327000,2794000,"/Search/View?dp=1&key=2516329-4a41e378c8a12dffe12bff0a5d4921ff&start=327&end=2794","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/2516329-4a41e378c8a12dffe12bff0a5d4921ff/thumbnail_327000.jpg","/articles/6296401/Alaska/Alaska-Seafood-Marketing-Institute-asks-Legislature-for-10M-to-chase-US-market-gap-after-Russia-ban","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6296401-be48e7fceda3c0a4f366225b9e0165f4/orig.mp4?Expires=1771118159&Signature=fUuHP4Um6FfFNy5wPFAGIptA8H-i9JJPfVX950esVwtFiMBK1~MoqIuolOh5VMRztEasgzDoE-NVz121lDi0jgStxxIFWubUS~cbAo9sbc71es1bmwOUrLRTyaSa7-v1SW7b84DHTMFAmE~Vg7X4BNNP6q2PWhkBuGsYTECCDULlyDeUIAFjqcFJMEqGdDLNSBc3la4-cT2ZV-X02PpXDkd7VV7G8RRXT2QRcQ9loUrx099d8NT02bf5rMBErniHijcuMDJ-GlrLgD2BW27UzE0T8uLJh5DaRLdcAtkV40jWnDKxwFTLjxA~MsdvyNn2Lr4DWb~RcqiLZThctqkeMA__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","Jeremy Woodrow, executive director of the Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute, asked the Senate Finance Committee on March 5 for a $10 million supplemental appropriation spread over three years to expand U.S. marketing and shore up industry sales as ex‑vessel prices fall.

ASMI’s request aims to “capitalize on that Russian seafood ban and increase Alaska seafood sales in the U.S. marketplace,” Woodrow told the committee. He said the funds would be allocated mainly to U.S. retail and food‑service promotions and to amplify consumer public relations and brand work for Alaska seafood.

ASMI, established by statute as a state corporation under the Department of Commerce, Community and Economic Development, funds its work from three main sources: a seafood marketing assessment paid by the industry, federal overseas marketing grants, and occasional unrestricted general funds. Woodrow explained that the industry assessment is a voluntary levy on ex‑vessel value currently set at one‑half of 1 percent, and he defined the term for the committee: “Ex‑vessel value is that first sale that happens between a fisherman and a processor. Some might call it the dock price.”

Woodrow said ex‑vessel values have dropped sharply, reducing ASMI’s assessment receipts and prompting the supplemental request. He told senators ASMI’s current “spin plan” — the organization’s planned marketing spend — is at historically high levels (above $20 million) and that the requested $10 million would help maintain that program over multiple years rather than allow marketing to fall as industry receipts decline.

The presentation framed a near‑term market opportunity tied to U.S. trade actions affecting Russian seafood. Woodrow said an executive order banning new Russian seafood imports to the United States (effective May 2024) “provides about a $452,000,000 opportunity for the Alaska seafood industry” and left an estimated 70,000 metric tons of U.S. demand to be filled. He cautioned, however, that other seafood‑producing regions are also seeking to fill the gap and that ASMI will have to compete for that business.

Woodrow described how ASMI combines federal market access program funds and regional agricultural promotion funds (both administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service) with state resources to fund overseas and domestic marketing. He said federal funds must be used for overseas marketing and that federal programs are competitive: larger ASMI commitments improve the chance of securing federal match. Woodrow estimated that roughly $3 million of state/industry match historically helped ASMI secure about $4.5 million in Market Access Program funds plus $4.5–8 million from the regional program in some years.

Committee members asked timing and design questions. Senator Stedman and Woodrow discussed why the request was drafted as a FY25 supplemental rather than a FY26 appropriation: Woodrow said earlier passage would allow ASMI to start activities in the current fiscal year, amplifying campaigns in late spring and summer. Senator Stedman suggested the committee consider moving the appropriation into a FY26–FY27 vehicle given statewide budget constraints and the time needed for the governor to sign budgets.

Senator Kaufman asked whether the marketing angle tied to the Russian ban would be durable if trade circumstances change; Woodrow acknowledged that a lifted ban would create market turmoil and emphasized that price remains the leading consumer purchase driver. Senator Crump objected to using state dollars to promote some species (pollock/surimi), saying those sectors are large and can market themselves. Woodrow described programs focused on retail, digital tools (Chicory), couponing apps (Ibotta) and distributor promotions; he cited past returns such as $2.4 million in sales from a Chicory campaign and $120 million in sales driven by distributor promotions in FY24.

Woodrow also described ASMI’s Alaska Responsible Fisheries Management (RFM) program as a differentiator that can certify origin and sustainability, and said ASMI is active in cruise‑ship promotions and in expanding markets overseas (Southeast Asia, North Africa and parts of Eastern Europe).

No committee vote was taken on the supplemental request during the hearing. Woodrow concluded his presentation and offered to provide additional information to the committee on request.

","The Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute told the Senate Finance Committee it is seeking a $10 million supplemental appropriation spread over three years to capitalize on a U.S. market opportunity created by a ban on Russian seafood, while industry revenues have fallen because of low ex‑vessel prices.","actionData","errors"]

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20‑year Medicaid forecast: Alaska spending projected to grow about 4.7% yearly; reimbursement and chronic care drive costs

Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute asks Legislature for $10M to chase U.S. market gap after Russia ban