Duarte schools forecast 23% decline in student enrollment over next decade

In a recent Duarte Unified School District special board meeting, officials highlighted a concerning trend regarding student enrollment and housing developments. The discussion revealed that newly constructed luxury apartments in the area are not generating a significant number of students, raising questions about the future of school populations.

Board members noted that a sampling of recently built apartments showed minimal impact on student enrollment, with one luxury building of 50 units producing only two school-age children. This trend is expected to continue unless more affordable housing options are introduced. As one board member pointed out, “Unless that stuff is like affordable, completely subsidized housing, it’s not gonna generate too many students.”

The meeting also addressed the broader implications of declining birth rates and housing costs in California, which are contributing to a projected 14% decrease in student enrollment over the next five years. The district currently has a significant number of students—511—enrolled from outside its boundaries, indicating that while some families are attracted to Duarte schools, the overall student population is still on the decline.

Officials emphasized the need for strategic planning to address these challenges, particularly as the district anticipates a drop in enrollment from 2,956 to 2,261 students by 2034. The conversation underscored the importance of understanding local housing trends and their direct impact on school demographics, with hopes that future analyses might reveal a shift in these patterns.

As the board concluded, the focus remained on the necessity for ongoing assessments and potential solutions to ensure that Duarte schools can adapt to changing community needs and maintain enrollment levels.