Duarte school district reports declining enrollment despite new housing developments

The Duarte Board of Education held a special meeting on March 10, 2025, to discuss significant trends affecting student enrollment and housing in the Duarte Unified School District. A key focus of the meeting was the impact of newly constructed apartments on student population forecasts.

Board members highlighted that recent apartment developments, particularly luxury units built within the last five years, have not generated a substantial number of students. For instance, a sampled luxury apartment building with 50 units produced only two school-age children. This trend raises concerns as the district anticipates an influx of approximately 1,000 new apartments in the near future, with another 1,000 projected within the next three to five years. However, without affordable or subsidized housing options, the likelihood of these developments contributing significantly to student enrollment remains low.

The discussion also touched on the broader implications of declining birth rates in California, which are expected to lead to a 14% decrease in student enrollment over the next five years and a 23% decline over the next decade. This trend is not unique to Duarte but reflects a statewide pattern. The board noted that many families are opting for multi-generational living arrangements, further complicating the district's ability to attract new students.

Additionally, the meeting revealed that a notable portion of students enrolled in Duarte schools—511 out of 2,956—reside outside the district boundaries. This indicates that the district's programs are appealing enough to attract students from neighboring areas, despite the challenges posed by local housing conditions.

The board acknowledged the need for strategic efforts to improve enrollment, particularly in retaining students transitioning from middle to high school. While some schools in the district have high retention rates, others lag behind, indicating areas for potential growth and improvement.

In conclusion, the Duarte Board of Education is faced with the dual challenge of declining birth rates and the limited impact of new housing developments on student enrollment. The board plans to continue monitoring these trends and explore strategies to enhance student retention and attract families to the district.