[{"_1":2,"_85":-5,"_86":-5},"loaderData",{"_3":4,"_26":27},"root",{"_5":6,"_17":10,"_18":19,"_20":21,"_22":10,"_23":-5,"_24":-5,"_25":10},"user",{"_7":8,"_9":10,"_11":10,"_12":-5,"_13":-5,"_14":15,"_16":-5},"roles",[],"isAuthenticated",false,"isPremium","planName","subscriptionStatus","featureFlags",{},"insightsBudget","isDevelopmentHost","userPreferences",{},"recaptchaSiteKey","6LcvOJcUAAAAAHsB-gPGfGktcRlKpH7OTIU_dMTD","isImpersonating","impersonation","affiliateStatus","isFreedomPortal","routes/v2/article/layout",{"_28":29,"_30":31},"notFound",true,"relatedArticles",[32,73],{"_33":34,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":40,"_41":42,"_43":44,"_45":46,"_47":48,"_49":50,"_51":52,"_53":54,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":60,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":66,"_67":-5,"_68":69,"_70":-5,"_71":56,"_72":56},"mediaId",6620859,"mediaKeyId","2803763-dbf19a2d4237f615234a1c9cd257ce45","parentId",2803763,"title","Regional economist: slower population growth, long commutes and a warehousing boom shape Tracy's future","audioSeconds",1540,"startMs",2801340,"endMs",4342000,"viewUrl","/Search/View?dp=1&key=2803763-dbf19a2d4237f615234a1c9cd257ce45&start=2801&end=4342","thumbnailUrl","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/2803763-dbf19a2d4237f615234a1c9cd257ce45/thumbnail_2801340.jpg","articleUrl","/articles/6620859/Regional-economist-slower-population-growth-long-commutes-and-a-warehousing-boom-shape-Tracys-future","mediaUrl","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6620859-6a2af3973b6395219e2b9c8b98fa9786/orig.mp4?Expires=1771134924&Signature=hL6oc1KThuNsT6cz2C2CQDfZEIycYBF-edZ1FjCv~KFboy6Z3dKwQ6ZffZH1y4P~UhJoJWkxIvnGaN5oNNGyP1Ug-VwkhxEkzxRR0IqHcffOqNrKFuQyaX~A8OMTeKzV7XpZC2OrkDcN8opRPApVHsVYSMX2F5ZKGGDxNX4RLs4xfc1V5phFOmFrZsdEdGHUHrcuAzVbTPJUW3c~Cc4CnBEhjtXe~L~yzEcNW5vE5PMo~Q1V4Qdqs82BuIOA3~FpkwqChx3X6OR26l4g8C-GR9JLmpOqbas8d~3EHZ1hKXpkK-Ah-Dgod49yFH5~Zzd0v9BTCJ7uJZM8EZDDF3v3tg__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","author","","date","2025-03-28T04:27:17.22Z","article","Thomas Pogue, executive director of the Center for Business and Policy Research at the University of the Pacific, presented a data‑driven regional economic outlook that highlighted shifting population dynamics, housing trends and job composition that will affect Tracy and the North San Joaquin Valley.

Pogue said California has returned to a positive growth rate after pandemic declines, but San Joaquin County's long‑term growth has slowed and its patterns are changing. \"We've finally gone back to a positive growth rate,\" Pogue said, describing recent recovery in natural population change and some slowing of net domestic outflow to other states.

Why it matters: Pogue framed these demographic shifts as central to planning for housing, economic development and workforce supports. He warned that long commutes, an aging population and a strong concentration of logistics jobs present both opportunities and challenges for Tracy.

Key findings presented by Pogue included: San Joaquin County's median housing price stabilized around $560,000 (February 2025 dollars) after pandemic peaks; nominal rents have risen about 24% since January 2020 but real rents (adjusted for inflation) show little change; Tracy's median household income was cited by the mayor earlier in the event as over $117,000, and Tracy's population was described elsewhere in the event as nearing 100,000.

On commuting and jobs, Pogue said about 34% of Tracy residents reported a commute of more than one hour each way in the 2019–2023 data set he cited, far above the U.S. average of 8.7 percent. He said roughly 70 percent of San Joaquin County residents who work outside the county commute to the Bay Area. Pogue also highlighted the region's large share of employment in transportation and warehousing (above 16 percent in San Joaquin County) and said the area has among the highest concentrations of such employment nationally—an important factor given the growth of e‑commerce and distribution centers.

Demographics and projections: Pogue pointed to falling birth and fertility rates as a structural change. He said San Joaquin County's birth rate advantage over the nation has narrowed and projected that, over 25 years, the 25‑year‑old cohort could decline by about 4 percent while the senior population (age 65+) could increase by about 65 percent.

Transit ridership: Pogue reviewed transit data showing ACE train ridership fell sharply during the pandemic (about an 85 percent drop) and has recovered to roughly half of pre‑pandemic levels; intra‑county transit ridership has recovered to approximately 70 percent of pre‑pandemic levels, he said.

Pogue concluded by urging regional collaboration to leverage strengths in advanced manufacturing, clean energy and the bioeconomy and to plan for changes in workforce composition and care needs as the population ages.

Ending: Pogue emphasized that the region faces both constraints—housing costs, long commutes and demographic change—and opportunities in clean energy and advanced logistics that city and regional leaders must weigh in future planning.","mediaType","Video","parentTitle","March 25, 2025 - State of the City Address","oneSentenceSummary","Thomas Pogue of the University of the Pacific presented data showing California's return to positive growth, slowing domestic migration into San Joaquin County, commuting patterns with long travel times for many Tracy residents, rising concentration of transportation and warehousing jobs, and projected demographic aging over the next 25 years.","taxTitle","taxId",0,"location","headline","shortSummary",{"_33":74,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":75,"_41":76,"_43":77,"_45":78,"_47":79,"_49":80,"_51":81,"_53":82,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":83,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":84,"_67":-5,"_68":69,"_70":-5,"_71":56,"_72":56},6620863,"Tracy mayor highlights retail wins, new economic department and youth incentives in State of the City",1990,976530,2966770,"/Search/View?dp=1&key=2803763-dbf19a2d4237f615234a1c9cd257ce45&start=976&end=2966","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/2803763-dbf19a2d4237f615234a1c9cd257ce45/thumbnail_976530.jpg","/articles/6620863/Tracy-mayor-highlights-retail-wins-new-economic-department-and-youth-incentives-in-State-of-the-City","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6620863-ba7a706b41038970436e42006a53eade/orig.mp4?Expires=1771134924&Signature=aeLUBvmWQOR-w5wh7BXguRANLixs5wtBwx8-Gnn53yVKRzevI5Q5TrIIUZGbuG-SMX7QwHFO0ok4bThbLRc0YBoA7IqHiX3paR7q50c-UZX4Hc7iMxsUL62RvSYRls7e9AtBMN85U-SBYSENUgCwF6RJByFGFaN15P~amoMZXcpmain~RW7eygPjw6pZuShicq0xdLVqP4lSJtOaGMp28tsKFOpAxQRHxq-6ge5skmI7dSLTFJt6AoJKVr3~284KmBBuwj7xZI4YYC~6LPw2lKnZdS39SBnlLVwC7HdT7b8lnB-8~Qffjha7QLDlNYb0FExFjETFrjwPV~9y4C3Ehw__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","Mayor Dan Areola used his State of the City address in Tracy to lay out a package of economic-development measures and community investments, announcing new retail and industrial projects, a restructuring of city permitting and economic services, and a policy proposal to attract youth‑oriented businesses.

Areola told attendees the city has reorganized its economic development functions into a single Community and Economic Development (CED) department and created a new land development engineering division to streamline plan review and permitting. \"I am committed to cultivating a culture of transparency, collaboration, and trust,\" Mayor Dan Areola said, introducing the reorganized department and promising to cut red tape for businesses.

Why it matters: The mayor framed the initiatives as part of a broader strategy to retain and attract businesses, create jobs and expand retail and recreation options for residents. He tied economic development to measurable projects and private investments already under way in Tracy.

The mayor named several recent and forthcoming private-sector investments. He said city council approved an annex for a Costco facility that the city described as the first 100 percent renewable‑energy warehouse in Tracy and that the project committed to providing \"over 250 prevailing wage careers with benefits for employees.\" He also noted the recent opening of BJ's Restaurant and Brewhouse (the mayor said the location has hired 220 employees) and cited a repurposed 17,500‑square‑foot facility by Sutter Tracy Community Hospital that now provides primary and urgent care exam rooms, labs, imaging services and about 15 physicians.

On retail, Areola said Trader Joe's has selected Tracy for a new store and announced an opening in summer 2025. \"Trader Joe's has confirmed that it has selected Tracy as the location of its newest store,\" the mayor said.

The mayor highlighted local innovation in clean energy and manufacturing. He noted Heirloom, described in his remarks as \"the first commercial carbon capture facility in the nation and fully powered by renewable energy,\" and said former U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm and Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis attended Heirloom's ribbon cutting.

Parks and recreation projects cited by the mayor include a 61,300‑square‑foot, net‑zero multigenerational recreation center at El Pascadero Park (construction began in August 2024 and was described as a 24‑month program), a renewed plan for the Tracy Aquatic Center with community input (staff gathered more than 1,600 survey responses and will present conceptual plans to the city council on April 15), and recent ribbon cuttings for Jean Burke Park and Raymond P. Morelos Junior Park. The mayor also announced Ellis Dog Park opened five days before his speech, describing its nearly 2 acres of space and amenities.

Infrastructure and public safety: Areola told the audience the city laid 637 tons of asphalt in 2024, sealed about 30 lane miles of streets and installed over 5,400 feet of thermoplastic striping. He said the city secured a $41,300,000 grant from the U.S. Department of Transportation to support the Coral Hollow Road corridor project, which the mayor described as widening the corridor, replacing bridges over the California Aqueduct and Delta Mendota Canal, adding multimodal facilities and roundabouts, and improving interchange operations. Construction was described as set to begin in 2027; a specific final completion date stated in the address was garbled and is not specified in the transcript.

On public safety the mayor said the Tracy Police Department is fully staffed and described a new red‑light traffic safety program with camera installations at several intersections. He also noted the South San Joaquin Fire Authority, in partnership with Tracy, began construction of a new regional fire training facility expected to open for the 2026 training season.

Youth and engagement: Areola announced the Tracy Youth Activities Initiative, an economic‑development incentive program the mayor described as targeting businesses requested by young residents (for example, laser tag, roller skating rinks or escape rooms). He said the initiative \"has been approved for a future council agenda.\" The mayor also described recent youth engagement efforts including a mayor's youth town hall, a student government day and an open summer internship program for students.

What the city will do next: The mayor named the CED department and the economic development strategic plan as the road map for implementing the described items, and he said staff will bring aquatic center findings to the April 15 city council meeting. The Youth Activities Initiative was described as pending further council consideration.

Ending: Areola closed by stressing transparency and partnership and asked residents to help shape a \"new era\" of progress for Tracy.","Mayor Dan Areola used his State of the City address to announce business wins including a Trader Joe's opening and a Costco renewable-warehouse annex, describe a new one‑stop community and economic development department, and introduce the Tracy Youth Activities Initiative slated for a future council agenda.","actionData","errors"]

Article not found

Regional economist: slower population growth, long commutes and a warehousing boom shape Tracy's future

Tracy mayor highlights retail wins, new economic department and youth incentives in State of the City