Virginia economist examines tariff risks to state exports including soy and coal

The Virginia Legislature's Special Subcommittee on Federal Impacts to Resources convened on April 2, 2025, to discuss critical issues affecting the state's economy, particularly focusing on tariffs and exports. A significant concern raised during the meeting was the potential risks that reciprocal tariffs pose to Virginia's export economy, which is vital for both urban and rural regions.

One committee member highlighted that Virginia's top exports have shifted from semiconductors to bituminous coal, soy products, and diesel tractor trailers. The state's primary export markets include Canada, China, India, Mexico, and Germany. The member emphasized that the agricultural sector, particularly soybean production, is predominantly located in rural areas, making these regions particularly vulnerable to changes in trade policies.

The discussion revealed that while the committee has been analyzing the impact of tariffs on imports, there has been less focus on exports. An economist from the committee noted that they have begun to assess effective tariff rates by industry and county but acknowledged the need for a more comprehensive evaluation of how retaliatory tariffs could affect Virginia's exports.

The committee recognized the importance of understanding these impacts, especially for industries like auto manufacturing in neighboring states, which could also influence Virginia's economy. They indicated plans to enhance their analysis of export risks and incorporate findings from recent economic briefs to better inform their outreach and policy recommendations.

In conclusion, the meeting underscored the urgency for the Virginia Legislature to address the potential economic threats posed by tariffs on exports, particularly as they relate to the state's agricultural and manufacturing sectors. The committee aims to deepen its analysis and prepare for the implications of changing trade dynamics on Virginia's economy.