Analyst warns China faces population decline and increasing aggression towards Taiwan

The City Council of Indianapolis convened on April 17, 2025, for the Great Decisions 2025 discussion titled "American Foreign Policy at a Crossroads." The meeting focused on critical issues surrounding U.S. foreign policy, particularly in relation to China and its implications for global stability.

The session began with a presentation highlighting the notion that China may have reached its peak power and is now on a downward trajectory. This perspective suggests that China could perceive a limited window of opportunity to assert its influence, particularly regarding Taiwan. The discussion emphasized that the declining population in China, along with similar trends in Western and Northern Europe, could lead to increased tensions as nations navigate their geopolitical strategies.

Council members noted that while China has relaxed its previous one-child policy, the cultural and economic shifts resulting from years of population control have led to a reluctance among families to have more children. This demographic challenge poses long-term implications for China's workforce and economic growth. Efforts by the Chinese government to incentivize higher birth rates through subsidies and tax credits were acknowledged, but the effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain.

The conversation also touched on the broader implications of U.S.-China relations, particularly regarding trade. The council discussed the heavy tariffs imposed on China and the significant trade deficit the U.S. faces. It was suggested that a more unified approach to addressing the challenges posed by China could garner widespread support among American citizens.

In conclusion, the meeting underscored the complexities of American foreign policy in the context of a shifting global landscape, particularly with respect to China. The council plans to continue exploring these themes in future discussions, recognizing the need for strategic responses to emerging challenges.