[{"_1":2,"_99":-5,"_100":-5},"loaderData",{"_3":4,"_26":27},"root",{"_5":6,"_17":10,"_18":19,"_20":21,"_22":10,"_23":-5,"_24":-5,"_25":10},"user",{"_7":8,"_9":10,"_11":10,"_12":-5,"_13":-5,"_14":15,"_16":-5},"roles",[],"isAuthenticated",false,"isPremium","planName","subscriptionStatus","featureFlags",{},"insightsBudget","isDevelopmentHost","userPreferences",{},"recaptchaSiteKey","6LcvOJcUAAAAAHsB-gPGfGktcRlKpH7OTIU_dMTD","isImpersonating","impersonation","affiliateStatus","isFreedomPortal","routes/v2/article/layout",{"_28":29,"_30":31},"notFound",true,"relatedArticles",[32,75,87],{"_33":34,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":40,"_41":42,"_43":44,"_45":46,"_47":48,"_49":50,"_51":52,"_53":54,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":60,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":66,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":56,"_74":56},"mediaId",6578161,"mediaKeyId","3061492-8f1c2c8b97db1ad0a1e4e202f8431bd7","parentId",3061492,"title","Arlington ISD demographer: apartment mobility and charter transfers drive student losses; kindergarten enrollment is key to recovery","audioSeconds",159,"startMs",1127000,"endMs",1286000,"viewUrl","/Search/View?dp=1&key=3061492-8f1c2c8b97db1ad0a1e4e202f8431bd7&start=1127&end=1286","thumbnailUrl","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/3061492-8f1c2c8b97db1ad0a1e4e202f8431bd7/thumbnail_1127000.jpg","articleUrl","/articles/6578161/Texas/Arlington-ISD-demographer-apartment-mobility-and-charter-transfers-drive-student-losses-kindergarten-enrollment-is-key-to-recovery","mediaUrl","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6578161-9a1f10f08f008e15c970a47d7e5e13c9/orig.mp4?Expires=1770870183&Signature=bOwPtXW7h7nktttPkn2nalFwTiBjw1OHTQZVlqxWNIw1MqeLReyQGi6rYTaFFCUdieXMYvYGMRaQxbE4ggkqB5DEFCaiV1ozqgWv99E4VaII94jOKcBkqv7DL2YpCenBTSyYUN-sgxVJvvlNSfJ4GwVnh75mZMcQ56WFQ5Os~H2rdWF6XGzqBgsxDxuXNbZnqQ-J~eKFVXShHtyI0myYghM7SRl9vwhHAEpDiYPEidPD81IP9zmNXklryqMhoSF0H2qoi4Cls4Ur4fYJg6Z4nFgrPx2ip0-QMArXeX0DTSKaBWmL2jxAPSmbbE0mPTC1~tvFPxGt6BnaEw9RGXN-lw__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","author","","date","2025-04-19T16:28:12.293Z","article","Rocky Gardner of Zonda Education presented the Arlington ISD spring demographer report April 17, telling the Board of Trustees that the district recorded a larger-than-expected enrollment decline this year and that much of the loss is tied to mobile multifamily populations and transfers to charter schools.

Gardner said the district’s enrollment came in with a drop of “about 1,300 students,” and that the district’s “levers” — students who were in Arlington ISD last year but not this year — were “right at 8,500,” down roughly 1,000 from the prior year. He told trustees that new TEA transfer reports show 2,546 students transferred into Arlington ISD this year, an increase of about 100 from the previous year.

Gardner emphasized that a large share of levers are concentrated in apartment complexes and that multifamily yields per unit tend to be low and highly mobile. He described partner work with local analysts and said the district has maps that show the highest densities of levers coincide with apartment clusters. “The majority of your levers are coming from apartments,” he told trustees.

Gardner said the district’s near-term forecast calls for the decline to moderate — forecasting about a 900-student decline next year and a plateau near 49,000 students if current trends continue. He said an improved kindergarten capture rate could change the outlook: returning kindergarten numbers toward a pre-COVID level of roughly 3,700 students could push the district’s long-term enrollment closer to about 52,000.

Trustees asked specific follow-up questions about where departing students go. Trustee Wilbanks asked whether many leavers remain inside district boundaries but attend charters or are homeschooled; Gardner replied in the affirmative, saying many leavers still live in Arlington but now attend charter schools or are homeschooled. Trustee Fowler asked whether charter attendance rules or discipline policies could explain retention at charters; Gardner and other trustees said the data do not allow a definitive causal claim, and that charters’ marketing and mobility patterns are likely factors.

Gardner highlighted several campus-level findings: yield from new multifamily developments generally runs about 0.25–0.4 students per unit, while single-family home yields are roughly 0.3–0.5 students per home. He also pointed to utilization maps showing several elementary campuses under 70% functional utilization and a high-school utilization picture where some high schools are overcapacity (for example, Martin High School was cited as about 118% utilized).

Board members responded by urging the administration to study early-childhood and kindergarten marketing and programming as ways to improve capture. Several trustees recommended forming a capital-needs steering committee to pair demographic work with facility planning.

Gardner closed by saying the district now has more granular data on newcomers and transfers to help forecast where levers are likely to occur and that the district and partners are working on predictive models to locate high-risk areas for student loss.

Materials Gardner cited were the TEA enrollment release, newcomer lever files built with district student IDs, and mapping work provided in partnership with local analyst Eric Penrod.","mediaType","Video","parentTitle","2025-04-17 Arlington ISD Regular Meeting of the Board of Trustees","oneSentenceSummary","Rocky Gardner of Zonda Education told Arlington ISD trustees April 17 that the district lost about 1,300 students this year and that apartment mobility and transfers to charter schools account for a substantial share of the losses.","taxTitle","ARLINGTON ISD, School Districts, Texas","taxId",12953,"location","Texas","headline","shortSummary",{"_33":76,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":77,"_41":78,"_43":79,"_45":80,"_47":81,"_49":82,"_51":83,"_53":84,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":85,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":86,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":56,"_74":56},6578166,"Arlington ISD board ratifies two high-school administrative appointments",51,308000,359000,"/Search/View?dp=1&key=3061492-8f1c2c8b97db1ad0a1e4e202f8431bd7&start=308&end=359","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/3061492-8f1c2c8b97db1ad0a1e4e202f8431bd7/thumbnail_308000.jpg","/articles/6578166/Texas/Arlington-ISD-board-ratifies-two-high-school-administrative-appointments","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6578166-46f3f616e543f9d7e82b2b15d709d71f/orig.mp4?Expires=1770870183&Signature=DOYjheGEFBNrOPSUUBomvH8RFPGkw8WB~pzS9UU1KzHFWlRR3Um0JxPE92JGGi1Vww0a84aE7VNfGn-Swd0I69E4ZmuiY~V2wLIwvXWvCI4pf8L5Rm7gPFZftTJQ8EAMFyBHFYBFcp8B7PMGtXOmYkHd2Z-NYlU05fBOzRYiaIT7DwTe3rLhJV3dXbeuNmsZlIO4BHe3EOKhagTSHNce0JIw2~eMMEHtPg4Dk55FvJUWj0FJ2oWAjOw5HE7UxPqK33496iEuomHxzCeJj5EjC9hNivxnrugghE~LSE7ZXpumGnctkTqwb4oNHASAUNxTcGhAj7VUhJxnCFwiqwRNHg__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","The Arlington ISD Board of Trustees voted unanimously April 17 to ratify administrative appointments announced in closed session: Christopher Stroud as associate principal at Sam Houston High School and Anne Hartfield as assistant principal at Martin High School.

The appointments were introduced by Superintendent Dr. Smith during the open meeting after trustees moved the ratification motion. “All seven trustees voting in the affirmative,” President Chapa announced after the roll call.

Dr. Smith said Stroud currently serves as principal of Itasca High School and holds a Master of Science in educational administration from Western Governors University and a Bachelor of Science in biology from Texas Woman’s University. Stroud told the board, “Look forward to it. Love it,” and thanked community members and campus supporters who attended the meeting.

Dr. Smith introduced Anne Hartfield as Martin High School’s new assistant principal, noting she has more than 15 years in education and an MBA from Texas A&M University–Commerce. Hartfield said she was “super excited about this move to Arlington ISD” and looked forward to “learn, explore, grow and serve the families, community, students and teachers at Martin High School.”

The ratification followed a motion from Trustee Fowler and a second from Trustee Wilbanks. Trustees paused briefly for a recess and a photo opportunity after the introductions.

The board also moved through the consent agenda later in the meeting; the consent motion passed with trustees present voting in the affirmative, with one trustee not voting on that separate set of consent items.

The appointments take effect per district administrative practice; no effective date was specified on the record.","At its April 17 meeting the Arlington ISD Board of Trustees unanimously ratified two administrative appointments: Christopher Stroud as associate principal at Sam Houston High School and Anne Hartfield as assistant principal at Martin High School.",{"_33":88,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":89,"_41":90,"_43":91,"_45":92,"_47":93,"_49":94,"_51":95,"_53":96,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":97,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":98,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":56,"_74":56},6578157,"Financial adviser: Arlington ISD can afford a modest bond now; larger program depends on sustained taxable-value growth",2187,2517000,4704000,"/Search/View?dp=1&key=3061492-8f1c2c8b97db1ad0a1e4e202f8431bd7&start=2517&end=4704","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/3061492-8f1c2c8b97db1ad0a1e4e202f8431bd7/thumbnail_2517000.jpg","/articles/6578157/Texas/Financial-adviser-Arlington-ISD-can-afford-a-modest-bond-now-larger-program-depends-on-sustained-taxable-value-growth","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6578157-b7c5a3d3360e402bfd5c0bbee95c6c28/orig.mp4?Expires=1770870183&Signature=GRufe6xbkGCfcXqzrp5KeJZ3eCbxN2S-UyMK3e~BOSgnFY1JctWKRElqFrzfYU0hxfL8J7EdFhxtzmvIyaYZp3o~922S7iHNHaPs4X8iSeIfMvrSlmlyOPey5RTQHZ79odFVYO7YgmxBVfoqIAXaetNQMzYd~jwVvkdHON6OFDOHPzNK-Hh7f3LSgkhFksG0-9AQLkDkc8ETSgLdnD3J6hLlDqzJwEpO6A7evAfQN3h~BFtG8mgntAhfOVyuZBec6IxWIVVUkcBO8Ujv2uz80R6DdMC3mC9l-krL4spk5WgVA5zJ8YVM5uhRQDxSMofMaXSPFCGMWgrJ320k-WM-xw__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","Hilltop Securities’ advisor George presented high-level modeling to the Arlington ISD Board of Trustees April 17 showing the district likely has capacity for a modest bond issuance in the near term while preserving its I&S tax rate, but that a substantially larger multi‑series program would require sustained taxable-value growth and could push key rating metrics higher.

George told trustees that “value is everything” when modeling debt capacity; his presentation assumed conservative taxable-value growth (5% for two years, then 2% for two years, then 1% thereafter) and modeled two initial authorizations — $300 million and $350 million — to be issued roughly 2026–2028. Under those assumptions, he said the district could issue the smaller authorization and still “adhere … to the 0.2907 I and S tax rate.”

If the district instead sought a larger subsequent authorization (examples modeled in the presentation ranged to a combined total of roughly $650 million or more in later authorizations), the adviser said average annual taxable-value growth of roughly 2.6–3.5% over the modeling window would be required to keep debt metrics near current medians. George noted the district’s current Moody’s rating is Aa1 and that Arlington ISD’s debt measures are below median comparators today; larger authorizations would move those ratios upward and could affect rating considerations without stronger value growth.

George reviewed the district’s existing debt paydown and noted the 2019 authorization totaled about $966 million, of which roughly $164 million remained in the most recent issuance cycle. He also advised trustees on rating‑relevant metrics and on maintaining fund balance; he said a reserve policy nearer 25% of operating expenditures would be prudent to support rating stability.

CFO Darla Moss and trustees asked questions about timing and scale. Several trustees supported a smaller near-term bond to “catch up” with a five‑year cadence and to address immediate equity and safety items at campuses, while deferring larger systemic capacity projects for later, more strategic planning. Trustee Wilbanks and Trustee Richardson recommended a capital‑needs steering committee to align bond planning with the district’s forthcoming strategic plan and the new facilities condition assessment; Superintendent Dr. Smith said administration would bring back a plan to convene such a committee.

George’s modeling and trustees’ discussion also referenced the district’s strong fund balance position and the role of defeasances/refunding in managing debt levels. Trustees emphasized pairing demographic, facilities and program analyses (including attendance-boundary review) with any bond planning to ensure projects address current utilization and community priorities.

No bond authorization or vote was taken at the meeting; trustees asked administration to return with next steps for a capital‑needs steering committee and short‑term bond planning options.","Hilltop Securities presented models April 17 showing Arlington ISD could issue a $300 million–$350 million bond program over 2026–2028 while maintaining the district’s I&S tax rate; a larger subsequent authorization (totaling several hundred million more) would require multi-year taxable-value growth and could affect rating metrics.","actionData","errors"]

Article not found

Arlington ISD demographer: apartment mobility and charter transfers drive student losses; kindergarten enrollment is key to recovery

Arlington ISD board ratifies two high-school administrative appointments

Financial adviser: Arlington ISD can afford a modest bond now; larger program depends on sustained taxable-value growth