City Assessor McKeith forecasts 6% property tax increase amid market uncertainty

The Richmond City Council convened on April 28, 2025, for a budget work session aimed at reviewing the city's financial outlook and addressing key budgetary concerns. The meeting commenced with a presentation from City Assessor Richard McKeith, who provided insights into the forecast for taxable real estate assessments in light of recent market trends.

McKeith began by discussing the factors influencing his forecast, which projects a 6% increase in taxable property values for the upcoming reassessment. He noted that this figure is consistent with historical trends, particularly following a period of significant fluctuations in the real estate market. The assessor highlighted that the previous years had seen double-digit increases, with a notable 13% rise in 2023, followed by a decrease to 7.7% in 2024 and a further decline to 6.7% in 2025.

The discussion emphasized the impact of national economic conditions, including rising interest rates and inflation, which have contributed to a cooling real estate market. McKeith pointed out that the current assessment sale price ratios indicate a more stable market, with many neighborhoods showing ratios in the high eighties and nineties, suggesting limited room for aggressive increases in property values.

Council members engaged with McKeith, expressing appreciation for his insights and the challenges of forecasting in an uncertain economic climate. They discussed the importance of aligning Richmond's assessment practices with those of neighboring municipalities, which typically have more time to analyze market conditions before setting their budgets.

The session concluded with a consensus on the need for continued monitoring of the real estate market and a commitment to revisiting the forecast should significant changes occur. The council acknowledged the importance of maintaining a healthy market while being cautious in their projections, given the potential for economic downturns.

Overall, the meeting underscored the complexities of budget planning in Richmond, with a focus on ensuring that the city's financial strategies remain responsive to both local and national economic trends. The council plans to reconvene for further discussions as they finalize the budget ordinance and address any remaining amendments.