CFO survey reveals declining optimism amid rising trade concerns post-election

The Special Subcommittee on Federal Impacts to Resources convened on April 2, 2025, at 9:30 AM in SR A (305) to discuss the latest findings from the CFO survey conducted in collaboration with Duke University and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The survey, which was released the previous week, revealed notable trends in business optimism and concerns regarding the economy.

The meeting began with a presentation on the survey results, highlighting a significant increase in optimism among respondents regarding the overall U.S. economy in the fourth quarter. Participants rated their optimism on a scale from 0 to 100, with their own firm’s financial prospects generally rated higher than the broader economic outlook. However, this optimism saw a decline in the first quarter of 2025, nearly erasing the gains made post-election.

The survey also assessed expectations for GDP growth over the next four quarters, indicating a downward trend in growth expectations compared to previous quarters. Notably, the proportion of firms anticipating declines in GDP has increased, although the overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic.

Key concerns identified by survey participants included trade and tariffs, which emerged as the top issue, mentioned by approximately 30% of firms. Inflation and political uncertainty also ranked high among concerns, with the latter remaining significant despite the recent election.

The discussion transitioned to the impact of trade policies on hiring and capital spending. The survey indicated that many firms expect trade and tariff policies to negatively affect their hiring practices. In contrast, responses regarding regulatory, corporate tax, and immigration policies showed a more neutral outlook, with most firms not anticipating significant changes.

The meeting concluded with an acknowledgment of the challenges firms face in navigating the evolving economic landscape, particularly in relation to federal policies. The subcommittee plans to continue monitoring these trends and their implications for the state's economic health.