Weldon Cooper Center reveals Harrisonburg's demographic trends and K-12 enrollment projections

A recent Harrisonburg City Council meeting highlighted significant demographic trends affecting school enrollment and housing in the city. A researcher from the Weldon Cooper Center presented findings from a comprehensive study that revealed a 16% population growth in Harrisonburg from 2010 to 2024, surpassing the state average of 10%. This growth was primarily driven by migration and an increase in births, particularly between 2010 and 2017, where the annual growth rate reached nearly 2%. However, since 2018, growth has slowed to about 0.5% annually.

The study also noted a remarkable 41% increase in K-12 enrollment during the same period, significantly outpacing the state’s 3% growth. This surge in enrollment was largely attributed to immigration, with a 70% rise in students born outside the U.S. from 2015 to 2024. In contrast, the number of births has stabilized, suggesting a potential decline in future kindergarten cohorts.

Housing trends revealed that while residential units in Harrisonburg increased by nearly 50%, much of this construction occurred before 2010. The researcher emphasized that newer housing does not directly correlate with increased student enrollment, as many families with school-aged children tend to reside in older homes. This trend raises questions about the effectiveness of new housing developments in accommodating the growing student population.

Looking ahead, the study provided three enrollment projections, with the first suggesting a 4% increase in K-12 enrollment over the next decade. However, the projections indicate that without continued migration and stable birth rates, the growth may plateau and eventually decline.

City officials expressed the importance of these findings for future planning, particularly regarding school capacity and funding. The council acknowledged the need for ongoing assessments of enrollment data to adapt to changing demographics and housing developments. As Harrisonburg continues to grow, understanding these trends will be crucial for ensuring adequate educational resources and infrastructure.