Lancaster reports mixed crime trends with notable increase in arson and grand theft auto

The Lancaster Criminal Justice Commission meeting held on May 14, 2025, focused on crime statistics in the city and surrounding unincorporated areas. The meeting revealed a mixed picture of crime trends, with some categories showing increases while others experienced declines.

In 2025, Lancaster reported a total of four criminal homicides, consistent with the previous year. However, there was a notable 25% increase in the overall homicide rate compared to the five-year average from 2020. Forcible rape incidents rose significantly, with a total of 29 cases reported, marking a 93.33% increase overall, although the unincorporated area saw a 60% decrease.

Robberies in Lancaster totaled 69, reflecting a 14.67% decrease in the city and a 58.33% drop in the unincorporated area. Aggravated assaults also decreased slightly, with a total of 249 incidents reported, resulting in a 5.63% drop in the city.

Burglary rates showed a decline in the city, with 152 incidents reported, while the unincorporated area experienced a 29.63% increase. Larceny thefts decreased by 20.48% in the city and 25.58% in the unincorporated area. Grand theft auto incidents increased by 17.92% in the city but decreased by 61.38% in the unincorporated area.

Arson cases rose to 14, with a 50% increase in the city and a 33.33% increase in the unincorporated area. The discussion highlighted that fluctuations in small numbers can lead to significant percentage changes, particularly in categories with low incident counts.

Commission members noted that the five-year changes in crime rates might be influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns, which altered social behaviors and law enforcement practices. The meeting concluded with a recognition of the complexities surrounding crime trends and the need for ongoing analysis to understand the underlying factors driving these changes.