[{"_1":2,"_87":-5,"_88":-5},"loaderData",{"_3":4,"_26":27},"root",{"_5":6,"_17":10,"_18":19,"_20":21,"_22":10,"_23":-5,"_24":-5,"_25":10},"user",{"_7":8,"_9":10,"_11":10,"_12":-5,"_13":-5,"_14":15,"_16":-5},"roles",[],"isAuthenticated",false,"isPremium","planName","subscriptionStatus","featureFlags",{},"insightsBudget","isDevelopmentHost","userPreferences",{},"recaptchaSiteKey","6LcvOJcUAAAAAHsB-gPGfGktcRlKpH7OTIU_dMTD","isImpersonating","impersonation","affiliateStatus","isFreedomPortal","routes/v2/article/layout",{"_28":29,"_30":31},"notFound",true,"relatedArticles",[32,75],{"_33":34,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":40,"_41":42,"_43":44,"_45":46,"_47":48,"_49":50,"_51":52,"_53":54,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":60,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":66,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":56,"_74":56},"mediaId",6238764,"mediaKeyId","3346603-1eb2f0eb326e9b5ade04daad39316e45","parentId",3346603,"title","Economist warns Utah officials to plan for reduced federal support, possible Medicaid and grant changes","audioSeconds",240,"startMs",1969000,"endMs",2209000,"viewUrl","/Search/View?dp=1&key=3346603-1eb2f0eb326e9b5ade04daad39316e45&start=1969&end=2209","thumbnailUrl","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/3346603-1eb2f0eb326e9b5ade04daad39316e45/thumbnail_1969000.jpg","articleUrl","/articles/6238764/Utah/Economist-warns-Utah-officials-to-plan-for-reduced-federal-support-possible-Medicaid-and-grant-changes","mediaUrl","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6238764-d1aa2602c1ff26911c1a4b7370213a0a/orig.mp4?Expires=1770853925&Signature=W2TgEWUZ48SusVb9IVLpOykPfc-NXFZJ8FN6s3wcG-OLt25QUGx3ha-M9uWH4I1UOCs8Nkhy28u10vgGX~9KwymV-KHf1QC5ApRa3S2fGu6B0yRbaLDkvYHnDtyugsmPBC~RQ8KJ2hrUoVp2jwK4gVqla6Eh6XJM2i-UQqljQQ~ylwgQBtFwr7HxqXZPcMHwBUzdHGTlwNVm5f31XBOR~OAch3NaoL0sKINs5vJJIptmrUfTaKVB3RHn5JPeNEYNiVsAoI3SisFlTRatPelW5L5J1qUOBElr3zmV0SgZg-4f2WWIzoGpxfajMgqGG7nEGD6RRHLccxpoGfEUedy9zg__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","author","","date","2025-05-16T21:51:00.45Z","article","Robert Spendlove, senior economist with Cyence Bank and a former Utah state legislator, told a webinar audience that federal policy changes on tariffs, spending and program rules could push costs and responsibilities onto states and local governments.

Spendlove said the administration is pursuing a fiscal agenda that includes spending cuts and tax reductions and that several proposed options for changing Medicaid could reduce federal support and raise state and local liabilities. He advised local officials to treat certain federal revenues as \"high risk\" when planning budgets.

Detailing specific local impacts, Spendlove cited a Department of Health and Human Services slide showing Utah's Medicaid enrollment surge following expansion and pandemic policy: enrollment rose from roughly 70,000 to nearly 300,000 during the pandemic and has since returned to about 200,000. He said a CBO analysis prepared for the House Ways and Means Committee described multiple options for reducing Medicaid spending, including changes to the expansion population matching rate, caps on spending per enrollee, and stricter eligibility/enrollment rules. \"If the federal government matching rate drops below 90%, Utah goes back and undoes the Medicaid expansion,\" Spendlove said, citing existing Utah law referenced in his slides.

Spendlove also pointed to examples of proposed federal grant reductions affecting Utah, including a referenced $84 million reduction in a COVID-related grant to the Utah Department of Health and Human Services, and a local example he said appeared on a slide about a downtown Moab lease that may be under review. He added that federal deregulatory pushes and a renewed emphasis on mining and critical minerals could change land- and resource-management practices that affect Utah counties.

For local budget planning, Spendlove urged officials to identify and segregate federal sources that are vulnerable to change, labeling them as \"high risk revenue.\" He said officials should re-evaluate expectations for federal broadband and other infrastructure grants, and consider alternative scenarios for revenue and service levels. \"If you're relying on federal government support, I think you need to be kind of setting that in, in a special category,\" he said.

Spendlove suggested officials track the evolving congressional debate and the summer congressional calendar: he expects negotiation windows to tighten by late summer and into the fall, which could leave local governments brief notice to adapt to changed federal funding.

Ending: The webinar host said attendees would receive the slide deck and recording; Spendlove offered to share materials and answer follow-up questions.","mediaType","Video","parentTitle","Tariffs, Taxes, & DOGE: How the World has Changed in the Last Few Months","oneSentenceSummary","In the same webinar, Robert Spendlove outlined how tariff and budget shifts at the federal level could reduce some COVID-era funding and alter Medicaid rules, and he advised local officials to treat federal grants as higher-risk revenue when crafting city and county budgets.","taxTitle","Utah League of Cities and Towns, Utah Lobbyist / NGO, Utah Legislative Branch, Utah","taxId",76712,"location","Utah","headline","shortSummary",{"_33":76,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":77,"_41":78,"_43":79,"_45":80,"_47":81,"_49":82,"_51":83,"_53":84,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":85,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":86,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":56,"_74":56},6238769,"Economists say Trump tariff regime marks lasting shift; uncertainty clouds near-term outlook",374,718000,1092000,"/Search/View?dp=1&key=3346603-1eb2f0eb326e9b5ade04daad39316e45&start=718&end=1092","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/3346603-1eb2f0eb326e9b5ade04daad39316e45/thumbnail_718000.jpg","/articles/6238769/Utah/Economists-say-Trump-tariff-regime-marks-lasting-shift-uncertainty-clouds-near-term-outlook","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6238769-7a299525de465454d5b5761a0d7775e6/orig.mp4?Expires=1770853925&Signature=Zjyd8h9DOMooaWs~ZWq6Qg8hj-gqcwT2C9VvFiNCHNinEnZsrQRTQF-dx5oO~CgNwnKsiFcrFu58YP0M0BpsmfdA0Fc-TzoOSaUni6whnm-KVgXrxuxMoiDDTtLHUNG-iAuPg9UyBZrs5vVAYnMk0ks7jJ0SZdClSQ5j~pMcthfG5CFWDdWyOqmhQGj-TKUa8ZLzIujgjO1iGOqhnnWnELEF4x~CwESGDOdEhWF4XkGxzZJfrWV9Ys3mh4w79GNtmy7i7Qwh1BxwXYCzOfPyrhcQ14DVmRhitlijHdB82pBKyj0mDU5x-T5zVjoQubzjvPeS3qefv~8qIl9FwvAGSw__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","Robert Spendlove, senior economist with Cyence Bank, told attendees of an online webinar that the Trump administration's trade policies represent a fundamental shift in U.S. economic strategy and could leave tariffs higher than they have been in decades.

Spendlove said the administration's approach breaks into several components and — even if renegotiations lower some rates — he does not expect a return to the pre-tariff era of near-zero average import duties. \"I do not see it going back to 3%. We're we're not going back to a a low or 0 tariff world in the near future,\" Spendlove said.

The webinar presenter said the administration uses layered tariff \"buckets\": a baseline global sales-tax-style tariff, a trade-war layer (notably with China), reciprocal country-by-country tariffs, regional exemptions tied to agreements such as USMCA, and national-security measures for critical minerals and semiconductors. He cited a recent revision from the Yale Budget Lab placing the average U.S. import tariff near 18% (up from about 3% a decade earlier) and said that some negotiations have produced effective Chinese import rates in the 30\u001240% range when older tariffs are included.

Spendlove argued the tariffs are part of a broader three-part economic agenda he summarized as \"reindustrialize, reprivatize and refocus\": re-emphasize manufacturing and extractive industries, reduce federal spending and oversight, and shift emphasis from global to domestic and from federal toward state and local roles. \"You should not take Donald Trump literally, but you'd better take him seriously,\" Spendlove said of the president's negotiating style and the disruptions it produces.

On revenue and budget dynamics, Spendlove cited a University of Pennsylvania dynamic model and other analyses that suggest high tariff rates could produce large revenue streams if maintained, but noted the Congressional Budget Office cannot score executive-only tariff actions when scoring legislative bills. He summarized the administration's claim that retained tariffs would help offset large proposed tax cuts and spending changes, but warned those revenue projections depend on keeping tariffs at elevated levels.

On inflation and households, Spendlove noted uneven impacts: consumer \"soft\" sentiment has dropped sharply while much \"hard\" data such as retail sales and labor-market indicators remain mixed. He emphasized that lower-income households are already showing stress, pointing to rising credit-card minimum payments and higher delinquency on some debt categories.

Spendlove also discussed monetary policy in the tariff context. He said interest rates are a blunt instrument against tariff-driven inflation and warned of the risk of stagflation if rates are tightened enough to slow employment while inflation remains high.

The economist closed by stressing uncertainty: \"This is an economic shock scenario\" and data are less reliable while the shock is unfolding. He said markets have sometimes rebounded from headline shocks and urged listeners to watch whether soft indicators move into hard data (labor, inflation) over coming months.

Support cited during the talk included analyses from the Yale Budget Lab, the Congressional Budget Office, the University of Pennsylvania budget model and the Ways and Means Committee request for studies; Spendlove referenced historical comparisons, including the Smoot\u0012Hawley tariffs in the 1930s.

Looking ahead, Spendlove said he expects some settling by late summer or early fall as Congress, the administration and trade partners pursue deals, but he noted the chance of a downturn had risen from earlier in the year. \"An economic downturn is more likely, but it's still not my base case,\" he said, estimating roughly a 40% chance in the near term.

Ending: Spendlove offered his slide deck and a recording to attendees and invited follow-up questions. The webinar host said the materials would be shared with participants.","In a webinar presentation, economist Robert Spendlove described the Trump administration's tariff strategy as a multi-layered, likely persistent change to U.S. trade policy that could raise average import tariffs from historic lows to a new range (roughly 10\u001215%), while increasing economic uncertainty and dividing public views.","actionData","errors"]

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Economist warns Utah officials to plan for reduced federal support, possible Medicaid and grant changes

Economists say Trump tariff regime marks lasting shift; uncertainty clouds near-term outlook