Minnesota's population growth concentrated in Twin Cities amid declining school-age children

The May 19, 2025, Regular School Board Meeting for Alexandria Public Schools in Minnesota focused on demographic trends and their implications for the school district. The meeting began with a presentation on the state of Minnesota's population changes, highlighting a total increase of approximately 402,000 residents, or 7.6%, from 2010 to 2020. Notably, the seven-county Twin Cities Metro Area accounted for 78% of this growth, with Hennepin and Ramsey Counties contributing significantly.

The discussion included a detailed analysis of birth and death rates in Minnesota, revealing a concerning trend: the natural population change is nearing zero, with a steady decline in net births over the past few years. The presentation illustrated that while there was a spike in births in 2020, the overall trend indicates a decrease in the number of school-aged children, projected to decline by about 5% over the next 15 years.

The meeting also addressed migration patterns, noting a significant increase in international residents moving to Minnesota from 2022 to 2024. However, domestic migration has seen a decline, with more residents leaving the state than moving in. This trend, combined with the natural population changes, suggests a potential decrease in the overall school-aged population.

Graphs presented during the meeting depicted the distribution of school-aged children across various counties, indicating that while some areas like Anoka, Stearns, and Sherburne Counties are experiencing growth, Ramsey and Hennepin Counties are seeing losses in school-aged children. This is particularly striking given that these counties had previously shown significant population growth.

The meeting concluded with a focus on the implications of these demographic shifts for local school districts. Alexandria Public Schools reported a modest increase of 207 resident students, or about 4.6%, from 2020 to 2023, which is a positive sign amidst broader trends of decline in other districts. The board acknowledged the need to monitor these changes closely to adapt to the evolving educational landscape in Minnesota.