[{"_1":2,"_76":-5,"_77":-5},"loaderData",{"_3":4,"_26":27},"root",{"_5":6,"_17":10,"_18":19,"_20":21,"_22":10,"_23":-5,"_24":-5,"_25":10},"user",{"_7":8,"_9":10,"_11":10,"_12":-5,"_13":-5,"_14":15,"_16":-5},"roles",[],"isAuthenticated",false,"isPremium","planName","subscriptionStatus","featureFlags",{},"insightsBudget","isDevelopmentHost","userPreferences",{},"recaptchaSiteKey","6LcvOJcUAAAAAHsB-gPGfGktcRlKpH7OTIU_dMTD","isImpersonating","impersonation","affiliateStatus","isFreedomPortal","routes/v2/article/layout",{"_28":29,"_30":31},"notFound",true,"relatedArticles",[32],{"_33":34,"_35":36,"_37":38,"_39":40,"_41":42,"_43":44,"_45":46,"_47":48,"_49":50,"_51":52,"_53":54,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_59":60,"_61":62,"_63":64,"_65":66,"_67":68,"_69":70,"_71":72,"_73":74,"_75":74},"mediaId",6531731,"mediaKeyId","3467322-f34c3acc261ffbd3f44487a064b34987","parentId",3467322,"title","LCRA: Low inflows could push basin to DCP stage 3 by August; summer outlook shows warmer, generally drier conditions","audioSeconds",10,"startMs",39000,"endMs",49000,"viewUrl","/Search/View?dp=1&key=3467322-f34c3acc261ffbd3f44487a064b34987&start=39&end=49","thumbnailUrl","https://assets.pipeline.soar.com/3467322-f34c3acc261ffbd3f44487a064b34987/thumbnail_39000.jpg","articleUrl","/articles/6531731/Texas/LCRA-Low-inflows-could-push-basin-to-DCP-stage-3-by-August-summer-outlook-shows-warmer-generally-drier-conditions","mediaUrl","https://secure.pipeline.soar.com/6531731-a9a68a68ff0ba3544e32ff8f5817ea5c/orig.mp4?Expires=1774927508&Signature=IiSd5hVEpOKN7DgIrU2PZ8Jyy38XLyBqv0-MrCzQ-PlHsfWKSyu2JBSwPs5Z4H~T2tNIfD4Ha~~WkoG7vap6gbMefvhUVUT6FieZ83LG~FpkpLRbFzIJ04oi8-jfQUm77Rp-skQvzm7FHogpProi7uwXqxmNNZwOS74Twp6Ts~-fYAJpmK~vRkoLB9N8Pyth7o2PCaQo12nntdj~IongSYTl~AH2gVAZogFuXHDvxT~cPohK8J6oqVksHfyKM-sqG-ww9CPB2zDGyEnm~WnRJ5LjSgz6m8jhUe6gA4mSbJUDa1Eobk1f6fz6A4MDKQdEdU21~v5PaaMfY25RTc4s2Q__&Key-Pair-Id=KUT5TJCACFTXG","author","Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA)","date","2025-05-20T00:00:00Z","article","At a May 20 meeting of the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) Water Operations Committee, staff reported that inflows to Lakes Buchanan and Travis remain far below long‑term averages and warned that, if dry conditions persist, the basin could enter stage 3 of LCRA's Drought Contingency Plan (DCP) by about August.

\"The inflow for April ... is still only about 13% of the long term average for April,\" said Kelly, an LCRA staff member presenting basin hydrology figures. Kelly told directors that April inflows were roughly 25% of the long‑term median monthly inflow and that combined storage as of May 1 was cited in the meeting as 946,992 acre‑feet; staff reported the system was about 47% full as of the morning of the meeting.

Why it matters: lower lake levels and continued dry forecasts affect municipal supplies, agricultural users and downstream water rights. Kelly said the Lower River is drying, and LCRA has begun limited releases of interruptible stored water to supplement agricultural diversions at Garwood; staff reported about 383 acre‑feet were taken in late April and early May, and said the interruptible stored water program has an 18,100 acre‑feet cap this year.

Details from the meeting: Kelly showed monthly inflow charts and storage projections for Lakes Buchanan and Travis. Lake Travis was reported at elevation 635.61 feet on May 1 and about 635.5 feet on the morning of May 20. Lake Buchanan was reported at elevation 998.73 feet on May 1 and about 998.0 feet the morning of the meeting. Kelly said combined storage on May 1 was materially higher than the same date in 2024 but remains well below full capacity for the reservoir system.

Staff cautioned that, under the meeting's projection scenarios, continuation of dry and extremely dry conditions would move the system toward DCP stage 3 in late summer. \"If we stay in this dry weather pattern, we could enter stage 3 of our DCP sometime around August of this year,\" Kelly said.

Meteorological outlook: Bob, an LCRA meteorologist, told the committee that Pacific sea‑surface patterns have shifted away from La Niña into an ENSO‑neutral state, a pattern that can produce variable summer weather. \"I don't see any big rains coming our way,\" Bob said, adding that models currently show a hotter‑than‑normal summer for Central Texas and only a modest chance of above‑normal rainfall in late summer or early fall.

Bob summarized model guidance that projects near‑normal to slightly below‑normal precipitation for June through August and temperatures generally 1–2 degrees above normal for the summer months. He also discussed seasonal hurricane forecasts, noting early guidance from Colorado State University predicting about 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) forecast near 93 versus a climatological value near 73.

Operational and downstream considerations: Kelly reminded the committee that the Lower River’s drying trend increases the need to coordinate with downstream water‑right holders, specifically citing the city of Corpus Christi’s water right in the basin. Staff said Corpus Christi has been pumping that right heavily in spring and that LCRA staff is communicating with the city about availability under that right.

No new regulatory actions or policy changes were proposed at the meeting. The only formal action recorded in the transcript was approval of the minutes from the prior meeting.

Looking ahead: Staff said they were watching forecasts for late May and June for storm chances that could alter the projection. Bob said meteorological models show some potential for tropical influence in September, but he did not forecast certainty. Committee members asked a few clarifying questions; staff offered to continue monitoring inflows and to provide updates at future meetings.

Ending note: The Water Operations Committee adjourned after the basin and weather briefings and a short administrative period.

","mediaType","Video","parentTitle","LCRA Water Operations Committee meeting May 20, 2025","oneSentenceSummary","At a May 20 meeting of the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) Water Operations Committee, staff reported that inflows to Lakes Buchanan and Travis remain far below long‑term averages and warned that, if dry conditions persist, the basin could enter stage 3 of LCRA's Drought Contingency Plan by about August.","taxTitle","Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA), Departments and Agencies, Executive, Texas","taxId",17433,"location","Texas","headline","","shortSummary","actionData","errors"]

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LCRA: Low inflows could push basin to DCP stage 3 by August; summer outlook shows warmer, generally drier conditions