Pasco School District projects modest growth in student enrollment over next decade

In a recent study session held by the Pasco School District on June 24, 2025, key discussions centered around enrollment projections and demographic trends that could significantly impact the district's future planning. The meeting featured insights from economists who analyzed a decade's worth of enrollment data to forecast student numbers over the next ten years.

The analysis revealed a mixed outlook for student enrollment across different school levels. Elementary school enrollments are projected to increase, with estimates suggesting a rise from the current 8,630 students to between 8,800 and 9,200 by 2035. This translates to a potential increase of 440 students on average, indicating a need for additional facilities to accommodate this growth. The economists emphasized the importance of planning for this increase, suggesting that the district may need to consider constructing a new elementary school to manage the anticipated influx.

In contrast, middle school enrollments are expected to grow at a slower pace, with projections indicating an increase from approximately 4,500 to between 4,600 and 4,788 students over the same period. This represents a modest growth rate of about 2% per year, reflecting a more stable demographic trend compared to the elementary level.

High school enrollments present a more complex picture. While the current enrollment is nearing 7,000, projections indicate a potential decline, with estimates ranging from 6,600 to 7,160 students by 2035. This suggests that while there may be slight increases in some years, the overall trend could lean towards stabilization or even a decrease, prompting discussions about resource allocation and facility needs at the high school level.

The meeting also touched on broader demographic factors influencing these trends, including declining birth rates and residential development patterns in the area. The economists noted that while the overall population in Pasco is expected to grow, the number of school-age children may not keep pace, leading to a leveling off in enrollment figures.

As the district prepares for these changes, the insights from this study session will be crucial for decision-making regarding future infrastructure and resource allocation. The board members expressed interest in further discussions about the implications of these projections, particularly in light of the community's evolving demographics and housing developments. The session concluded with a commitment to continue analyzing the data and engaging with community feedback to ensure that the district's planning aligns with the needs of its students and families.