Virginia study evaluates bail reform impact on pretrial release and arrest rates
November 07, 2024 | Criminal Sentencing Commission, Virginia, Boards and Commissions, Executive, Virginia
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Key findings from the study revealed that approximately 63% of defendants under the presumption of no bail received lower Public Safety Assessment (PSA) scores, indicating a potential correlation between this presumption and risk assessment outcomes. The research analyzed data from January 2020 to December 2022, comparing pre-reform and post-reform periods to assess changes in pretrial release rates, failure to appear (FTA) rates, and new criminal arrest (NCA) rates.
The overall pretrial release rate for defendants subject to the presumption of no bail increased slightly from 64.4% to 66.8% after the reforms. Conversely, the release rate for those not subject to this presumption decreased marginally from 92.7% to 91.8%. Notably, the use of secured bonds declined for both groups, suggesting a shift in release mechanisms following the reforms.
The study also highlighted trends in FTA rates, which generally increased with higher PSA scores. For defendants under the presumption of no bail, the FTA rate for those with scores over 6 rose from 40.6% pre-reform to 45.3% post-reform. Despite these increases, the overall trend indicated a decrease in FTA rates across both groups after the reforms were implemented.
In terms of new criminal arrests, both groups experienced a downward trend in arrest rates following the bail reforms, although the rates still increased with higher PSA scores. The findings suggest that while the bail reforms have led to some changes in pretrial outcomes, the data does not establish a direct causal relationship between the reforms and these outcomes.
The meeting concluded with a call for further analysis to better understand the implications of these findings and to inform future policy decisions regarding bail and pretrial release in Virginia.
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