Population projections show Austin Metro could exceed 5M by 2060

The Austin Airport Advisory Commission convened on July 9, 2025, to discuss demographic trends and population projections for the Greater Austin area. The meeting focused on the implications of these trends for airport operations and regional planning.

The session began with a presentation on demographic shifts within the Austin metro area, highlighting that while the city of Austin's population demographics closely mirror those of the broader metro area, significant differences emerge when examining surrounding counties. Notably, there has been substantial growth in the Hispanic population in counties such as Hays and Caldwell, contrasting with a shrinking share in Travis County.

The discussion then shifted to population projections, with data from the Texas Demographic Center indicating that the Austin metro area is expected to more than double in size by 2060, reaching approximately 5.2 million residents. This growth is anticipated to surpass that of the San Antonio metro area, positioning Austin as the third-largest metro in Texas. The projections are based on historical migration rates, with a particular emphasis on international migration trends.

Further analysis revealed that while Travis County is projected to grow, Williamson County is expected to see a higher numeric increase. The city of Austin's internal projections suggest a potential population of 1.3 million by 2060, with a possibility of reaching over 1.7 million if migration levels return to historical rates.

A key tool presented during the meeting was an interactive population and employment forecast, developed in collaboration with various city departments. This tool allows users to visualize projected population density across different neighborhoods, particularly highlighting areas near the airport. For instance, the population in the airport vicinity is expected to grow from around 10,000 to over 41,000 by 2060, with job numbers increasing from 6,000 to nearly 18,000.

The meeting concluded with a commitment to finalize and disseminate a comprehensive report on these findings later in the summer, ensuring that the commission and relevant stakeholders are informed about the anticipated growth and its implications for airport planning and infrastructure development.