Recession indicators took center stage at the Portsmouth Supplemental Retirement Board meeting on May 4, 2023, as experts highlighted troubling signs for the economy. Key discussions revolved around leading indicators that suggest a potential recession on the horizon, with manufacturing indexes and CEO confidence surveys both flashing warning signals.

The meeting revealed that real-time data indicates a contraction in both manufacturing and services, with new orders falling below the critical threshold of 50, which typically signifies economic expansion. Experts expressed concern that the ongoing tightening of credit standards, particularly in regional banks, could exacerbate these issues.

One of the most striking points made was the prediction of a profit recession, with expectations that 2023 earnings may dip below those of 2022. This sentiment reflects a broader skepticism about the stock market's current valuations, which many believe are too high given the economic indicators. The discussion underscored the challenges posed by rising interest rates, which have pressured stock valuations and contributed to a decline in investor confidence.

Additionally, the meeting touched on consumer behavior, noting a record high in credit card debt as households increasingly rely on savings to maintain spending levels. This trend raises questions about the sustainability of consumer-driven growth, which constitutes two-thirds of the GDP.

In conclusion, the Portsmouth Supplemental Retirement Board's meeting painted a cautious picture of the economic landscape, with experts urging vigilance as recessionary indicators continue to mount. The implications of these discussions could have significant effects on investment strategies and economic planning in the coming months.