The Supplemental Retirement Board Meeting held on August 3, 2023, in Portsmouth, Virginia, focused on key economic indicators and their implications for the upcoming fiscal year. The meeting began with a review of current market trends, particularly the rise in 10-year treasury yields, which are indicative of investor expectations for stronger economic growth.

Board members discussed the significance of these trends, noting that confidence in a re-accelerating economy is growing, alongside expectations for taming inflation and falling interest rates. This optimism is reflected in projections for 2024, where anticipated earnings are expected to rebound despite a forecasted decline of 7 to 10 percent in earnings for the current year.

A critical point of discussion was the impending resumption of student loan payments, set to begin in October. Board members expressed concern about the potential impact this could have on consumer spending, especially as the holiday season approaches—a crucial time for retail revenue. With consumer spending accounting for approximately two-thirds of the economy, the timing of these repayments could exacerbate existing pressures on consumer demand, which is already showing signs of softening.

The meeting concluded with a call for vigilance regarding these economic indicators and their potential effects on the local economy. Board members emphasized the need for ongoing analysis as they prepare for the financial landscape of 2024. Overall, the discussions highlighted a cautious optimism tempered by significant challenges that could affect consumer behavior and economic recovery in the near future.