School administrators and county planners discussed enrollment declines at the elementary and pre‑K levels, shifting age and racial composition, and the limits of 2020 census data for near‑term school planning.

District reports: Chapel Hill-Carrboro and Orange County Schools presented average daily membership data showing high enrollment in 2019–20 followed by a decline that accelerated during the pandemic and has moderated but not reversed. Chapel Hill presenters said the district’s twentieth‑day count stood at about 10,800 students (a roughly 300‑student decrease from the prior year) and highlighted kindergarten drops (Chapel Hill‑Carrboro showed kindergarten counts at 626 on the twentieth day versus a high of about 850 in 2018–19).

County planning perspective: Sy Stover, Orange County planning director, presented annexation and demographic data showing differing municipal growth patterns (noting particularly fast percent growth in Mebane and increases in Hillsborough). Stover cautioned that census figures from 2020 are limited for short‑term enrollment forecasting because of pandemic effects and said new American Community Survey (ACS) five‑year data will be released in December and could materially alter district projections.

Housing affordability and student population: Planners and commissioners discussed housing price points and availability — Bowen National Research work showed few for‑sale units under $400,000 in mid‑2024 — and panelists tied affordability to families’ ability to reside in the county. Commissioners and school leaders agreed that housing cost and availability — not just birth rates — are important drivers of kindergarten and elementary enrollment trends.

What was not decided: No immediate boundary changes or school-closure decisions were made. Districts said they would monitor enrollment cohorts and might consider facilities and staffing adjustments if trends continue.

Ending: Officials agreed to share updated ACS and enrollment data with commissioners and to continue joint monitoring for capital and staffing planning.