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Prince William schools project 3,700‑student decline over five years; redistricting and trailer use debated
Summary
School planning staff presented updated enrollment projections showing a multi‑year decline driven by falling birth rates and out‑migration; supervisors and school board members discussed redistricting, trailers, capacity and coordination with county planning.
Prince William County Schools staff told a joint session of supervisors and school board members Wednesday that the district expects about 3,700 fewer students over the next five years and that elementary‑level cohorts are smaller because of declining birth rates.
"Our projection error was 3 tenths of a percent this year," said Dr. Matt Karpich, supervisor of planning and the capital improvement program, describing the district’s redesigned enrollment model. He said the district’s model blends birth data, migration and planned housing development; the presentation showed the elementary cohorts are…
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