St. Louis City officials told the Housing, Urban Development and Zoning Committee that the May 16 tornado affected an estimated 14,000 households and that the city's housing recovery needs likely start at a minimum of $500 million.

Noel Pfeffer, executive director of the city's Community Development Administration (CDA) and co-lead of the housing recovery task force, told the committee the most complete dataset available—FEMA individual assistance applications—shows 11,420 households applied for FEMA help. "Most experts recommend assuming that FEMA misses between 15 and 20 percent of folks," Pfeffer said, and when adjusted the task force estimates roughly 14,000 impacted households, about 30,000 people.

Pfeffer and Dylan Hollingham, co-lead of the city's restoration and disaster recovery office, said the task force has identified urgent needs that fall into six buckets: rapid rehousing, shelter, home repair, rapid housing production (including vacant-unit turns), resettlement support, and long-term housing production and neighborhood transformation. They presented a range of immediate and longer-term cost estimates and stressed that the $500 million figure is a conservative minimum: "This is honestly a minimum number. It may well be over a billion," Pfeffer told the committee.

Key figures presented to the committee:

- FEMA applicants: 11,420 households; adjusted estimate: about 14,000 households (roughly 10% of the city's households).

- Households with habitability repairs needed: about 5,000 owner-occupied dwellings classified as uninhabitable or requiring substantial repairs; task force warned FEMA counts likely understate damage.

- Homeless or unknown-living-status applicants: about 500 households identified as homeless in FEMA data; another 7,000 still residing in damaged dwellings.

- Landlord vacancy survey: the city and partners received more than 100 landlord responses and assembled an inventory of over 700 vacant rental units citywide; fewer than 50 units were under $1,000 per month, with an average asking rent near $1,300.

- FEMA and federal aid to date: roughly $23.5 million awarded in housing assistance from FEMA; only about 74 individuals have been approved for FEMA's Continued Temporary Housing Assistance program, Pfeffer said.

Pfeffer outlined immediate, deployable priorities the task force views as necessary to avoid a winter displacement crisis: rental assistance and direct lease agreements, a vacant-unit-turn initiative, stabilization (tarps and boards and limited weatherization), and mass and decentralized shelter planning. He said the Department of Human Services estimates capacity needs for mass shelter could reach up to 1,000 households this winter and that noncongregate (hotel) sheltering is currently operating as an expensive but necessary safety net.

The presentation reviewed funding already committed: roughly $23.5 million in FEMA awards, $4.2 million in Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) amendments, ARPA appropriations targeted to housing and repair, and an array of city, philanthropic and federal grant sources under consideration. Pfeffer cautioned that ARPA contract rules limit how the city can repurpose those funds and that federal disaster recovery appropriations, if secured, would substantially change the financing picture.

Committee members asked about timelines and implementation. Alderman Cohn asked whether staff had a specific funding ask for the committee; Pfeffer said the task force's role is to identify needs and figures and that appropriation decisions are for the mayor and the Board of Aldermen. Several members requested a detailed ARPA expenditure and pipeline update and an operational plan showing how funds and programs could be executed quickly enough to address urgent winter needs.

Pfeffer said some mechanisms exist to accelerate deployment, including sole-source procurement in public exigency, amending existing contracts for similar scopes, and a proposed "bridge funding" partnership with the Community Foundation to provide short-term capital against award letters so developers and community partners can begin work before city payments arrive. He said CDA released a Notice of Funding Availability for vacant-unit turns and expects rolling awards in the coming weeks.

The task force detailed several near-term numeric estimates the city could act on this fiscal year, including a rapid rehousing projection (serving roughly 1,750 households for 12 months estimated at about $35 million), shelter costs (mass and noncongregate shelter estimated at tens of millions), and a prioritized $25 million to scale home repair in the next 12 months (a scaling the CDA described as achievable given contractor capacity). Pfeffer noted repair work is expensive and time-consuming and cannot, by itself, solve the imminent winter housing crisis.

City staff said they will return with further details on ARPA expenditures, contract options, and a more detailed deployment plan. The committee did not adopt funding decisions at the meeting; members asked staff and the mayor's recovery office to follow up with operational plans and funding recommendations so the Board of Aldermen and the mayor can consider appropriation options.