Jenna Wallace, a consultant with RSP and Associates, told the Bentonville School District Board of Education on Oct. 9 that the district is projected to add roughly 4,000 students over the next 10 years, with enrollment growth concentrated at the elementary and middle-school levels.

Wallace said the district could see an elementary-level increase of about 1,500 students, a middle/junior high rise of about 500–600 students and high school growth of about 300. "We do have the district continuing to grow," Wallace said. "We have enrollment growth of over 4,000 students over these next 10 years."

The projection incorporates birth‑rate trends, recent housing activity and student movement, Wallace said. RSP uses more than 500 planning areas — smaller than census blocks — to estimate how many students individual neighborhoods will yield. Wallace said live births and under‑5 population trends correlate with future kindergarten classes; RSP’s modeling assumes a stable market share would keep kindergarten class sizes near current levels.

Why it matters: the distribution of new students matters for where the district will need seats and which buildings will face capacity pressure. Wallace said some elementary attendance areas already show imbalanced growth versus building capacity, and that cohort gains between grades (notably an average pick‑up of about 150 students from eighth to ninth grade) help explain larger high‑school classes.

Supporting details and evidence: RSP reported a net migration trend that currently adds roughly 400 students annually to the district and more than 650 students who open‑enrolled into Bentonville this year; Rogers School District supplied the largest share of open‑enrolled‑in students (about 284). Wallace said roughly 2–3 percent of total enrollment is open‑enrollment students and that the district is a “destination” in the consultants’ model because more students open in than out.

Wallace also presented housing yield rates used in forecasting: historically the district generated about 42 students per 100 single‑family homes; that yield has fallen to about 37 per 100. Multifamily yield rates have declined somewhat more. RSP’s maps show student density shifting west and southwest within the district and lower density in downtown and Bella Vista neighborhoods.

Wallace warned that short‑term development slowdowns could reduce near‑term housing starts and therefore expected enrollment growth. She pointed to temporary sewer and lift‑station issues in parts of Bentonville and capacity constraints tied to the Decatur and NACA wastewater plants in areas affecting Centerton and some downtown zones. Those stalled developments were shown as hatched areas on RSP’s development map.

Board members asked whether job growth — for example, new positions tied to the Walmart home office and Alice Walton School of Medicine projects — had already affected enrollment or would in the future. Wallace said employment growth correlates with population growth but cautioned that employees do not necessarily live in the district: "When you get into just employment, there's nothing that ties them necessarily to a school district until where they put their address in," she said.

Limitations and next steps: Wallace said the model treats open enrollment as a controlled variable based on a three‑year average and noted that yield rates, housing mix, and infrastructure constraints introduce uncertainty to the 10‑year outlook. RSP recommended continued monitoring — especially of sewer/infrastructure approvals — and integrating these projections into the district’s 10‑year master plan.

Ending: Board members asked RSP to provide additional breakdowns, including comparisons of market share by grade span and further analysis of the 25 percent of the census 5–18 population not enrolled in district schools (private, parochial, homeschool or open‑enrolled out). Wallace said she could supply those figures on request.