Consultant says Fort Myers Beach rebuilding will lift peak population to about 30,000; urges policy choices on housing and hotels

David Farmer, a consultant with Metro Forecasting, told the Fort Myers Beach Town Council on Sept. 11 that data gathered from property owners and hotels shows the island’s post‑Hurricane Ian rebuild is ongoing and likely to increase both visitor capacity and permanent population.

Farmer said his team counted 1,635 potential hotel rooms within the town’s political boundaries as of May 2025, with 1,484 “open for business and available for rent and use.” He presented two build‑out scenarios, saying the town could see about 3,100 to 3,100 hotel rooms in the more aggressive scenario and about 3,000 under a more modest scenario. “So you have about 15, 1600 hotel rooms existing and potential build out of just under 3,000 hotel rooms,” Farmer said.

The consultant estimated the town’s current peak‑season population potential at about 22,000 people based on units, bedrooms and occupancy assumptions, and said that applying realistic build‑out assumptions could push peak population toward about 30,000. Farmer described his approach: he used parcel‑level counts of single‑family and multifamily units, homestead flags from property records and bedroom counts to model occupancy. “If you pick a number … 1 and a half people per bedroom is not a bad place to sort of guesstimate,” Farmer said.

Why it matters: those estimates affect policy choices about zoning, the balance of hotels versus year‑round housing, service capacity and traffic. Farmer said council choices determine whether the town emphasizes a “revenue approach” (hotels and condos) or a “resident approach” (longer‑term rentals, workers’ housing and neighborhood services). “Do these questions seem appropriate or inappropriate to you?” Farmer asked, urging the council to define goals he can model at a follow‑up presentation.

Supporting details: Farmer’s slides and oral remarks included these points: - About 1,200 single‑family home parcels and roughly 5,500 condominium units were present as of May 2025; the 5,500 figure reflects units, not necessarily occupied units. - Roughly a third of single‑family homes were homesteaded, implying two‑thirds were non‑homesteaded and more likely to be short‑term rental stock or second homes. - Metro Forecasting identified roughly 32 acres of vacant commercial (corrected during the meeting to 23 acres) and marked parcels with severely damaged structures using a $10 structure valuation as a proxy for near‑total loss. - Farmer said about 404 condominium units had returned to active status between January and the meeting date, and homestead flags had ticked up by eight units in a recent four‑month period.

Council response and next steps: Councilors and staff asked for historical comparisons to pre‑Ian counts (2019) and for presentation of data in lay‑friendly “talking points” that the town can use when requesting support from other agencies. Farmer said he will return in October with a fuller forecast and graphics comparing 2019 and 2025 counts.

Quotes: Farmer summarized the purpose of the briefing: “I just want you to have the best information in front of you so you guys can make informed decisions.”

Ending: Farmer said the town’s choices about housing, zoning and workforce housing will shape whether the island grows largely as more hotels and condos or toward greater year‑round residency; he offered to model alternatives at an Oct. 15 follow‑up presentation. The council asked staff to supply pre‑Ian counts so the consultant can make direct comparisons in the next briefing.