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Demographer: Assante school will be full within two years; portables, boundaries and new sites are options
Summary
District demographer Kevin Shipman told the board Assante K–5 is approaching its architectural capacity (about 1,100); forecasts show 1,051 opening next year and 1,142 the following year under medium growth, and the district has land but construction and bond timing mean short‑term adjustments will be needed.
Kevin Shipman, the district demographer, told the Governing Board that rapid housing growth in the Assante area has pushed Assante school enrollment close to the school’s architect‑designed capacity of roughly 1,100 students.
Shipman said the district’s medium forecast projects Assante would open at about 1,051 students next year and reach about 1,142 the following year if current trends continue. He told the board that those forecasts are close to recent projections prepared by the district boundary committee and that the school’s population is “very fluid” during enrollment windows — with notable bumps in August and January.
Why it matters: Assante serves a rapidly growing area with many young families; kindergarten enrollment alone was reported at 164 in the district update, and the district said it has seen hundreds of new students enroll at Assante this school year.
Options discussed: Shipman and staff outlined several short‑term and long‑term levers the district can use to address capacity. - Boundary adjustments: shifting attendance zones to neighboring schools (Western Peaks, Cimarron Springs, Kingswood) that currently have some capacity. - Limit or close open‑enrollment seats for out‑of‑area students and unincorporated county students to prioritize in‑boundary students. - Portables/modular classrooms: the district currently had portables stored at Dysart High School; staff estimated moving and installing existing portables could cost roughly $700,000, and purchasing and installing modular classrooms would be significantly higher (district examples cited prices above the million‑dollar mark for multi‑classroom solutions). - Long‑term construction: the district has multiple available sites in the northern area (two ~15‑acre sites and other parcels including Rancho Mercado) but constructing a new school requires bond funding and multi‑year timelines; Shipman said even with a successful bond it is unlikely a new school could open before 2029.
Transportation and student time: Shipman noted long bus rides are already an issue for many students in the area; transportation staff and routing software show several routes with one‑way rides of 40 minutes or more. Board members asked whether extended ride times affect student outcomes and requested follow‑up data.
Board direction: Shipman said the district is likely to need a board conversation about capacity adjustments within approximately one year, regardless of election outcomes, because new school construction cannot be completed quickly enough to address immediate growth. He also noted the district has closed new open enrollment at Assante and can prioritize in‑boundary students as a near‑term step.
Ending: The board asked staff to return with additional data about bus ride times and to monitor January enrollment increases closely; demographer Shipman said that January inflow typically ranges from about 35–70 students and could push the school above 1,000 before summer.
