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Enrollment study: Harrisburg projections show slight decline, big range from low and high scenarios
Summary
The Pennsylvania Economy League presented final enrollment projections to the Harrisburg School District on Oct. 14, finding a projected overall decline of 443 students across the projection window and a wide scenario range driven by birth rates and grade progression; presenters urged household surveys to refine local estimates.
The Pennsylvania Economy League presented the final enrollment study for the Harrisburg School District at the Oct. 14 committee meeting, telling board members the district should expect a modest decline in total enrollment but that outcomes could vary widely depending on birth rates and grade-to-grade progression.
Vinny Cannizzaro, executive director of the Pennsylvania Economy League, said the report uses birth patterns, migration, housing-unit trends and grade-progression ratios to model enrollment. "Our 5 year projections are generally more accurate than our 10 year projections," Cannizzaro said, noting industry practice and the group’s…
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