Enrollment study: Harrisburg projections show slight decline, big range from low and high scenarios

The Pennsylvania Economy League presented the final enrollment study for the Harrisburg School District at the Oct. 14 committee meeting, telling board members the district should expect a modest decline in total enrollment but that outcomes could vary widely depending on birth rates and grade-to-grade progression.

Vinny Cannizzaro, executive director of the Pennsylvania Economy League, said the report uses birth patterns, migration, housing-unit trends and grade-progression ratios to model enrollment. "Our 5 year projections are generally more accurate than our 10 year projections," Cannizzaro said, noting industry practice and the group’s historical accuracy in similar studies.

Key findings presented to the board included: - A near-term projection that shows an overall decline of 443 students over the plan horizon presented to the board. - The district’s historical students-per-housing-unit ratio has fallen, from roughly 0.415 in earlier decades to about 0.259 in 2023–24. - The largest projected drop by grade band is kindergarten through grade 5 (a decrease of about 385 students), while grades 9–12 have shown increases in recent years (an increase of about 273 students). - Presenters showed a wide scenario range: a high-case scenario of about 9,731 students and a low-case scenario of about 3,647 students, driven by extremes in birth and progression rates.

Presenters told the board the district currently captures roughly half of children born within the city — "for every two live births, only one student enrolls" — a factor that lowers kindergarten expectations and scales down future enrollment. The team recommended the district conduct household surveys of enrolled families and monitor prekindergarten counts and new housing occupancy to refine five-year projections.

Board members asked for clarifications. Autumn Anderson asked whether the increase in grades 9–12 reflected a demographic bulge or transfers; presenters said transfers and migration can raise high-school counts and that local enrollment staff could help explain school-level trends. The presenters also noted that historical projections were within about 1.8% of actual counts in the most recent validation and that five-year forecasts tend to be more reliable than 10-year projections.

The firm recommended using a mix of three-year and five-year averages for progression ratios and a five-year birth-rate average as the primary modeling inputs. The district was also encouraged to combine the report’s findings with local household surveys to capture unregistered youth and students who may be enrolled in private or charter schools.