At its Oct. 15 meeting, the North Allegheny School Board heard the districts October 1 enrollment snapshot and a separate external demographic study that together project overall stable enrollment with modest gains concentrated in middle and high school.

The districts October 1 snapshot showed total enrollment of 8,622 students, an increase of nine from last year, and the largest fall enrollment since the 2019-20 school year. The report noted a net increase of 136 special-education students compared with last year, bringing special-education enrollment to 15.3% of district students. The presenter said kindergarten enrollment this year was low at 480 students. The district reported 85 languages spoken at home and a net increase of 14 homeschool students; the district transports 576 students to nonpublic schools (a figure that the presenter said covers only transported students, not all resident students who attend private schools).

Those local figures were accompanied by a presentation from an independent demographer retained by the district. The demographer said his model produced a different medium-term outlook than some state projections, and that key assumptions about live births and the way housing is counted can materially change forecasts. Using adjusted cohort-survival ratios and an embedded housing baseline, he forecast that enrollment would not fall to the low figures the state projection suggested and instead would trend modestly upward over 10 years (his 10-year forecast centered near 8,756 students rather than the lower state estimate). He told the board his student-per-new-home estimate implied a student-ratio parameter near 1.086 (about 0.086 net migration above baseline), and that local housing levels to date did not exceed the threshold needed to drive large direct enrollment impacts.

Why it matters: board members and staff said the forecasts inform ongoing conversations about school renovation and right-sizing. Superintendent and staff presenters said the district wanted a second, external look before committing to capital work.

Key data and methodology details presented

- October 1 enrollment: 8,622 (up nine from last year).
- Special education: +136 students year-over-year; 15.3% of district enrollment.
- Kindergarten enrollment: 480 students (presenter described this as low compared with recent cohorts).
- Homeschool: +14 students compared with last year; the district said homeschool numbers come from submitted affidavits.
- Nonpublic transport count: 576 students (transported to parochial/private schools; does not include families who drive students themselves).
- Live births: 425 in 2024 (district-provided birth data used in projections); 2025 birth data not yet available.
- District in-house projection: uses Pennsylvania Department of Health birth data and a five-year cohort survival average; staff said the projection shows a slight downward trend over time if birth rates remain low.
- External demographers approach: reweighted cohort-survival ratios, explicit accounting of housing permits and a student-per-home ratio; he argued some state projections understate births and thus overstate eventual declines.

Board questions and public comments

Board members pressed staff and the demographer on how private/parochial enrollment and housing trends affect projections. A board member asked whether the districts projections account for future development; staff said the cohort-survival ratios already embed past development effects and that direct housing impacts are added only when new-home counts exceed a baseline. Another board member asked staff to re-check historical enrollment data submitted to the state to confirm consistency; staff agreed to review data back to 2012.

A member of the public, John Harrison of McCandless, urged the board to examine apartment complexes and recent multifamily development carefully, saying apartments can bring school-age children into the district and recommending the board plan for potential enrollment pressure.

Limitations and unanswered questions

Presenters said some inputs remain uncertain: 2025 birth data were not yet available; the districts nonpublic student figure excludes privately driven (non-transported) students; and different projection methods produce materially different midterm pictures. The demographer warned that small changes to birth-rate assumptions or to the housing baseline produce large differences in long-range projections.

What the board will do next

Board members said the reports will inform planned facility and renovation discussions; staff and the demographer encouraged using both internal and external projections in planning. The district scheduled follow-up work and said it would provide additional clarifications after reviewing the historical data with the state submissions.