LCRA: Basin largely drought-free but outlook leans drier as La Niña watch issued

On Sept. 24, at a meeting of the Lower Colorado River Authority’s Water Operations Committee, LCRA staff presented an update showing the Highland Lakes system remained well above storage levels seen during the 2015 drought of record, but near-term outlooks lean drier. Kelly Payne, LCRA staff, told the committee that as of early September combined storage in Lakes Buchanan and Travis was about 1.8 million acre-feet, roughly 90–92% full and “still over a million acre feet more than we were 09/01/2014,” a comparable point during the drought of record.

The report matters because lower inflows and a seasonal shift in precipitation patterns could reduce future reservoir gains and affect water supply planning for central Texas. Payne said August inflows returned “to more of a dry pattern,” reporting about 23,228 acre-feet of inflow for August, roughly 40% of the long-term average for the month. He said the medians for August were near long-term normals, but rainfall distribution left parts of the basin drier than others.

Payne summarized basin conditions: roughly 53% of Texas and 45%–50% of the LCRA basin experienced some level of dryness by mid-September, with about 55% of the basin drought-free and roughly 40% classified as abnormally dry. He described that the I‑35 corridor showed moderate to severe drought conditions while much of the Hill Country remained comparatively wet. Lake Travis was reported near 673.75 feet mean sea level on Sept. 1 and around 672.15 feet at the committee’s morning check; Lake Buchanan was reported at about 1,018.34 feet. Combined storage was approximately 1,800,000 acre-feet as of Sept. 1.

Payne also reviewed seasonal outlooks from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center and said the CPC has posted a La Niña watch, estimating about a 56% chance of weak La Niña developing in late fall and persisting through early winter. Payne noted that La Niña historically corresponds with drier-than-normal fall and winter in Texas and that the CPC outlook currently shows no strong trend for September but leans toward below-normal rainfall October through February and above-normal temperatures for the same period.

Committee members asked clarifying questions about recent rainfall patterns, localized totals, and agricultural operations connected to basin conditions. Payne reported that Garwood agricultural operations had contracted slightly more than 14,000 acres for second-season rice and about 4,800 acres for supplemental uses, versus roughly 21,000 acres planted for the first season. He emphasized that monthly rainfall was spatially uneven: portions of the Northern Hill Country near Coleman received less than a quarter-inch in August while isolated Hill Country totals of 3–4 inches were reported elsewhere.

The committee did not take formal action on the basin update; members used the presentation to frame planning and to ask staff to incorporate the climate outlook into supply projections. Payne concluded by inviting questions and noting the CPC’s seasonal projections would inform ongoing operational planning.