Regional growth study urges coordination, warns unchecked sprawl will increase costs and strain services

A consultant team presenting the Growing Home study told a joint meeting of the Washington County and Benton County quorum courts that Northwest Arkansas must coordinate across jurisdictions to manage a projected rise toward roughly 1 million residents by 2050 and to avoid large infrastructure shortfalls.

Matt Lambert, a consultant with DPC Codesign, said the study — funded by the Walton Family Foundation and presented for the Northwest Arkansas Council — is not a regulatory plan but a strategy that shows how different growth choices drive widely different fiscal outcomes. "Growth can be good for for all," Lambert said while urging coordinated policies to protect rural lands and invest where people live and work.

The report presents several key findings and trade-offs. Lambert told the courts that the region developed roughly 28 square miles in 1985 and about 175 square miles by 2024. Under a business-as-usual scenario the study models more than 240 square miles developed by mid-century; coordinated strategies could reduce that footprint to roughly 210 square miles, and more aggressive regional compacts could reduce it further. The consultants modeled scenario outcomes in annual terms: one scenario showed about $190 million in new annual revenue and about $170 million in new annual costs (leaving roughly $20 million for reinvestment), while a more compact-growth scenario showed larger reinvestment capacity (the consultants estimated as much as $340 million under their most aggressive coordination scenario).

Lambert and his colleagues emphasized household cost burdens and the combined effect of housing and transportation. The study finds the typical household in the region spends about 24% of income on transportation and about 22% on housing; consultants said those combined costs limit household flexibility and contribute to affordability problems. The presenters also said development patterns have concentrated jobs and services in a small number of corridors and downtowns while much recent housing has been distant from work and services, producing heavy traffic on a few arterials.

Lambert summarized fiscal findings by place type: downtown cores and commercial corridors produce revenue well above their maintenance costs (the team estimated downtowns average roughly five times the revenue needed to cover direct costs), whereas newer suburban neighborhoods in the last 50 years pay roughly 30% of their long-term maintenance costs and sampled rural development paid roughly 4%.

Council and quorum court members used the Q&A to probe infrastructure specifics, including wastewater and stormwater capacity. Lambert said cities face large wastewater and stormwater expenses and that regional coordination is required because watersheds and sewer systems cross municipal boundaries. He also said that while compact areas have more impervious surface per acre, in aggregate lower‑footprint growth concentrated in centers can reduce total regional impervious cover compared with low-density sprawl.

Several county justices raised questions about the change in municipal extraterritorial jurisdiction (ETJ). Justice Rios Stafford told the panel that state legislation abolished ETJ authority in recent months and asked how the counties should handle areas that previously fell under municipal ETJ. Lambert and the presenters advised that counties and cities should consider annexation-ready standards or new county edge districts and work on MOUs to avoid unpredictable development outcomes.

Presenters said the study will advance recommendations — focusing on coordinated planning, funding strategies for infrastructure, and housing-supply tools — and that the consultants expect to deliver strategy recommendations to the Northwest Arkansas Council in the coming months. Lambert encouraged residents to complete the public survey at growinghomenwa.com to inform next steps.