District demographer reports steady homebuilding, forecasts small enrollment shifts by zone

The Eagle Mountain-Saginaw ISD’s demographer updated trustees on housing and enrollment patterns Tuesday, saying the district remains a top market for new-home activity in the Dallas–Fort Worth region while enrollment patterns vary by attendance zone.

Bob Chippleton, the district’s demographer, told the board that DFW remained a leading market for new-home starts and that Eagle Mountain-Saginaw recorded about 402 new home starts and 421 closings in the second quarter; the district currently has 1,647 vacant developed lots and about 9,411 future lots in planning stages. “We have groundwork underway on 1,600 lots,” he said.

Chippleton said the Hatley Elementary attendance zone was the most active for new single-family home building; it reported an annualized start rate that far outpaced other zones and had 655 vacant developed lots with 216 future lots noted. Eagle Mountain Elementary, he said, holds a much larger inventory of future lots—about 8,100 in planning—and that zone could drive multi-year growth.

The demographer said enrollment in September came in slightly below forecast districtwide—roughly 10,718 elementary students versus a projection of 10,976—but that Hatley, Eagle Mountain Elementary and Bryson were each above forecast in elementary counts and likely to push forecasts up by a year for feeder patterns. He noted the district’s secondary-level enrollments were slightly above projections, with high-school totals about 217 students over forecast overall.

Chippleton highlighted several drivers: limited turnover among older homeowners who have low mortgage rates; builders offering buy-down incentives that make new homes more competitive; and a statewide softening in K–12 enrollment dynamics tied to choice and homeschooling trends. He said multifamily construction continues but that new-unit completions have kept occupancy rates lower than older, stabilized stock.

Board members asked about geocoding—the district’s process of matching students to home locations—and Chippleton said geocoding is done annually and that the team will update projections after the October snapshot. The demographer said the district’s annual geocode and mapping update would be complete by the end of the month and would show new-to-district students versus those who left.

No board action was required; the demographer’s slides will inform staffing and long-range facility planning.