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Board hires demographer and reviews declining enrollment tied to COVID birth cohorts
Summary
The board awarded a three‑to‑five year demography contract to Zonda Demographics for $32,000 and heard a presentation showing lower kindergarten cohorts linked to births during the COVID period; staff said those trends will affect future facility and staffing decisions.
Trustees approved a contract with Zonda Demographics for $32,000 to provide ongoing enrollment forecasting and planning support, the administration said Tuesday. Mr. Henry told the board the firm proposed the lowest cost and received the highest score from the evaluation committee. The contract covers demographic analysis, enrollment forecasting and planning services over multiple years, staff said.
District presenters also reviewed historical and current enrollment trends. Mr. Kallenbach (campus enrollment presenter) showed that kindergarten cohorts have been smaller since about 2014 and that this year’s kindergarten class is down compared with prior years. He noted that the children born between September 2019 and August 2020 — the COVID birth cohort — are now the youngest school entrants and that lower birthrates nationally and locally are a contributing factor.
Kallenbach said the pattern means the district can expect some continued enrollment decline as smaller cohorts move through the grades; he urged trustees to expect repeated discussion in coming months as staff consider consolidations, boundary changes and capacity needs. Trustees asked for follow‑up materials on campus capacity and historical transfers; staff agreed to provide the demographic charts and updated capacity analysis in future reports.
The board approved Zonda’s contract 7–0; staff said the firm will update district data for planning decisions and help inform possible attendance‑zone or facility adjustments.
