Consultant presents 10‑year baseline financial assessment; identifies $13M ‘‘shadow deficit’’ across priorities

Morgan Shook of Eco Northwest presented a baseline 10‑year financial assessment and a scenario tool developed for the City of Tumwater to help align strategic priorities with long‑term fiscal capacity. Shook said the city’s general‑government operating budget (excluding most capital projects) is roughly $54 million in 2025 dollars and that departments identified a combined approximate $13 million gap between current budgeted service levels and a package of core, existing and enhanced services over the next decade. The assessment breaks spending into labor and non‑labor categories and highlights that police and fire personnel costs account for a large share of projected additional operating needs. Shook described the $13 million as a "shadow deficit" that accumulated over multiple economic cycles and results from constrained property‑tax growth, expanding service expectations and prior timing decisions. The model includes scenario inputs to test economic growth rates, staffing additions, tax‑rate or fee changes and other choices; staff said they can make an interactive version available to council so members can test "what if" scenarios. Morgan urged council to use the tool to help set priorities for the 2027–28 biennium and to consider options such as service reprioritization, revenue measures or phased investments; no specific budget decisions were made at the meeting.