Bob Templeton of Zonda presented a demographic and housing analysis and October‑year enrollment projections to the Cedar Hill ISD Board of Trustees.

Templeton said the district’s total population within its boundary is about 53,379 people across roughly 18,000 households, with a median age near 37.3. He reported the district’s capture rate of resident school‑age children attending Cedar Hill ISD has fallen from about 70% in 2010 to roughly 56% in 2024, a decline he attributed primarily to expanded school choice — charter schools and transfers to neighboring districts.

Housing activity is mixed: average new home prices were cited near $393,000 and average existing home sales about $375,000 (figures given verbally). Templeton identified approximately 950 lots available for builders and noted several subdivisions with active starts and future lots across elementary attendance zones, plus about 300 multifamily units in the planning pipeline. He said yields (students per housing unit) vary by product type: multifamily units generally yield far fewer students per unit than single‑family homes.

Using these inputs, Zonda’s forecast suggested Cedar Hill ISD enrollment could settle around 5,700–5,800 students over the coming years — a decline of roughly 400 students from the district’s present numbers across the projection horizon. Templeton flagged two major enrollment risks: (1) continued charter‑school growth — the DFW region reported hundreds of thousands of charter students statewide and steady new charter openings — and (2) anticipated state voucher funding scheduled to take effect for the 2026–27 school year, which could draw students from traditional public schools depending on administration details yet to be released by the comptroller’s office.

Board members asked whether Zonda could help the district identify charter campuses that are closing or provide contact data to aid outreach; Templeton said Zonda is developing new data sources for charter addresses and contacts. Trustees also asked about the lag in certification/accounting of industry‑based certifications and other CTE results; Templeton noted data submission and state timing affect when results appear in state reports. Templeton recommended targeted early engagement at pre‑K/kindergarten levels and proactive outreach to families as strategies to improve capture rates.