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Demographer warns kindergarten enrollment fell sharply; district could add 4–500 students annually if homebuilding resumes
Summary
A Zonda Education demographer told the Sherman ISD board that kindergarten enrollment and some elementary cohorts fell this year but long-term housing activity could drive substantial enrollment growth — if capture rates recover. He recommended monitoring local home closings, lots under construction and multifamily yields to refine forecasts.
Rocky, a demographer with Zonda Education, told the Sherman Independent School District Board of Trustees that kindergarten enrollment dropped sharply this year and that the district’s short-term enrollment projections are sensitive to local housing activity.
“We had a kindergarten enrollment that dropped by 78 students,” Rocky said during the board’s demographic presentation, adding that second grade retained roughly 95% of the prior year’s first-grade cohort. He said that those two grade-level changes were the largest drivers of the district’s under‑forecast this year.
Zonda traced the shortfall to slower home sales and new‑home closings: deed transactions and closings declined in the fourth quarter, Rocky said, and months of inventory increased…
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