Demographer warns kindergarten enrollment fell sharply; district could add 4–500 students annually if homebuilding resumes

Rocky, a demographer with Zonda Education, told the Sherman Independent School District Board of Trustees that kindergarten enrollment dropped sharply this year and that the district’s short-term enrollment projections are sensitive to local housing activity.

“We had a kindergarten enrollment that dropped by 78 students,” Rocky said during the board’s demographic presentation, adding that second grade retained roughly 95% of the prior year’s first-grade cohort. He said that those two grade-level changes were the largest drivers of the district’s under‑forecast this year.

Zonda traced the shortfall to slower home sales and new‑home closings: deed transactions and closings declined in the fourth quarter, Rocky said, and months of inventory increased to roughly five months — above the three‑month level the firm considers healthy. That slow turnover, he said, reduces the number of homes that would normally produce new students for the district.

The consultant said multifamily construction, single‑family rental products and mobile‑home parks can change yields (the number of students per housing unit) substantially. “A standard apartment yield is about 0.225 — think 25 students for every 100 apartments,” Rocky said. By contrast, mobile home parks and some tax‑credit properties can produce much higher yields.

Why it matters: school staffing, campus plans and next year’s budget depend on accurate counts. Rocky said the district’s kindergarten “capture rate” — the percentage of local births who enroll in Sherman ISD kindergarten five years later — fell from roughly an 82% average to 74% last year. If the district returns to an 80–90% capture rate while new housing resumes at 500–800 homes per year, he projected net growth of roughly 148 students next year and long‑term growth that would add thousands of students over a decade.

Rocky urged trustees to watch three housing signals closely: deed transactions/closings, lots under construction (Zonda counted roughly 1,800 lots underway), and yields by product type (single‑family, multifamily, single‑family rental, mobile home parks). He said that while some subdivisions currently have low yields, yields often increase as neighborhoods lease or sell out.

Board members asked how reliably Zonda can forecast when lots will translate into students. Rocky said zoning and lot counts are helpful, but timing can shift with interest rates, builder decisions and household choices (including homeschooling growth he cited). He noted that the team’s usual target accuracy is about 1% but that this year’s deviations stemmed mainly from unexpected kindergarten and second‑grade drops.

The board will use the demographic findings in facilities planning and budget forecasting, and Rocky said the district should expect revisions as spring and summer home‑closing data arrive.

Ending: Rocky left trustees with a practical point: “If we can get to about 90% and we can get your kindergarten enrollment up over 600, stay up over 600, it’s gonna help your long‑term growth,” he said.