Population and Survey Analysts, the district’s demographic partner, gave an in‑depth presentation on enrollment methodology and scenarios, telling trustees that regeneration of existing neighborhoods typically results in stabilization rather than a return to earlier peak student densities.

PASA lead Stacy Tapara said the firm will return with updated projections in October and described the firm’s multi‑step approach: analyze births to mothers living in the district, geocode existing student addresses, calculate students‑per‑home ratios for neighborhoods, assess planned and potential new housing, and estimate the effect of alternative educational options (charter, private, virtual schools).

Why it matters: Trustees are using PASA projections to weigh long‑range facility decisions, and several speakers at the meeting questioned whether projections fully reflect recent housing turnover and potential changes in interest rates that could bring new families back to built‑out neighborhoods.

Key points from the presentation:
- PASA showed that Leander ISD has moved from a high‑growth phase to an “approaching stabilization” phase overall, though parts of the district—especially new northern developments—remain high growth.
- Regeneration (resales of existing homes) typically replaces departing families with incoming families in roughly similar proportions; by contrast, new home construction more reliably adds students. “Regeneration causes stabilization. It does not cause growth,” Tapara said.
- Alternative educational options have grown: PASA estimates about 11.2% of school‑age residents now attend charter, private or virtual schools, and new charter openings in the region have had local enrollment effects. PASA said it uses TEA transfer reports and direct outreach to private schools to estimate these flows.
- PASA described a three‑scenario framework (reduced, moderate, accelerated) to bracket 10‑year projections; recent actual enrollment has tracked near the reduced scenario for the district as a whole.

Trustees asked clarifying questions about: how to treat open enrollment and transfers across district lines; whether a focus on pre‑K enrollment could help attract and retain resident students; and how to reflect micro‑school or voucher effects as the state policy environment changes. PASA said it will refine approaches to capture transfers and micro‑school openings and return in October with updated neighborhood‑level projections.

Ending: PASA emphasized that all projections depend on annual assumptions and that the board should revisit assumptions each year; trustees scheduled follow‑up briefing sessions and a board workshop to review detailed, campus‑level projections in October.