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Council hears NewPoint survey on failed Proposition 403; inflation, taxes and lack of ground game cited as main drivers of ‘no’ votes
Summary
Sahuarita officials reviewed post-election survey results showing 72% of survey respondents said they voted no on Proposition 403. Consultants and staff said voters cited rising costs, competing tax notices and an absent grassroots campaign as key reasons for rejection.
At a Sahuarita Town Council meeting, town staff and consultants reviewed a post‑election survey probing why Proposition 403 failed and what that means for future bond efforts. The presentation summarized voter demographics, reasons voters rejected the measure and communications lessons for any future ballot proposals.
The survey by NewPoint Marketing and Market Research found 72% of respondents reported voting no on Proposition 403; the firm said the survey was in the field May 10–June 8 and included 611 responses with a 95% confidence level and a ±4% margin of error. The consultants reported that inflation and recent property tax notices tied to higher valuations — plus the addition of a fire district tax on county invoices — were frequently cited reasons for voting no.
NewPoint CEO Mary Roley and Chief Strategy Officer Steve Lynn told the council respondents largely understood what was on the ballot. Roley said 98% of survey respondents were aware a proposition was on the ballot and that most correctly identified the projects included. Roley said the top reasons people gave for voting no were concerns about cost increases and taxes, a desire to split the package into separate votes, and a perception that the timing was poor because of inflation and recent tax notices.
Public information officer Haley Devoin told the council the survey was intended as a “hot wash” to learn lessons before considering another funding measure. The consultants and staff highlighted three takeaways: voters largely understood the contents of the package, homeowner respondents predominated (NewPoint reported roughly 98% homeowners in the sample), and the lack of a citizen-led ground game meaningfully reduced the likelihood of passage.
Roley and staff said a ground campaign — neighbors speaking to neighbors and visible advocacy outside of official town communications — increases passage odds markedly. Roley told the council that, based on her research, bond measures with active local advocacy have a 55–70% chance of passing, while those without vocal citizen support fall to 20–35%.
The consultants compared the post‑election survey to a pre‑ballot survey in early 2024 that had a larger sample (about 1,985 responses) and a smaller margin of error (≈2.1%). They also broke down responses by neighborhood, saying Rancho Sahuarita accounted for roughly 45% of respondents, Quail Creek about 17% and Madera Highlands about 10%.
When council members asked about trust in town government, Roley said only about 10% of respondents indicated they felt the town was fiscally irresponsible; she and council members characterized that as a relatively low negative rating compared with national norms. Staff emphasized that the town’s information sources — the town website, direct mail and local news — were effective in informing voters, but that information alone does not substitute for person‑to‑person advocacy.
No formal action was taken. Council members and staff discussed returning to the issue later if they choose to pursue another funding measure; consultants recommended stronger grassroots organizing, clearer framing of priorities, and careful timing relative to county tax notices and other regional ballot measures.
